[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 31 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Apr 1 10:30:57 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 30/2319UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.2 1024UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-Mar was R1 due to an M1.2
flare from AR4048 (S15E58, beta-gamma). This region also produced
M1 flare activity late in the UT day yesterday. This region is
reasonably large and continues to grow. In particular, the large
umbra in the trailer spot of this region has changed shape considerably
in the last 10 hours, possibly indicating magnetic instability.
Smaller solar region AR4049 (S30E32, beta-gamma) is currently
growing rapidly. The smaller surrounding spots around the large
main spot of solar region AR4046 (N05E36, beta) have declined.
Minor solar region AR4043 (N14W24, beta-gamma) has shown slight
growth. Other regions are small and are either stable or in decay.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk. Solar flare activity is expected to be R1-R2 over 01-03
Apr. There is a chance for an isolated R3 flare from AR4048.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery. A
slow minor non Earth directed CME was observed to the northeast
from 31/0624UT. S1 radiation storm conditions were observed from
31/1425UT, with solar proton flux currently at 78PFU. The solar
proton flux is possibly from the recent east limb X1 flare on
28-Mar. S1, chance S2 solar radiation storm conditions are likely
during 01-Apr, initially at S1 declining to S0 conditions are
expected on 02-Apr and S0 conditions are expected on 03-Apr.
The solar wind environment on UT day 31-Mar was variable and
mildly enhanced with a small discontinuity observed from 31/1017UT,
possibly a very weak signature from the recent eastward X1/CME.
The solar wind speed ranged from 495 to 345 km/s and is currently
near 446 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was
+9 to -6 nT. A period of very mildly southward IMF conditions
was observed 31/0735-1045UT. Small equatorial coronal holes are
approaching the solar central meridian and may induce a mild
increase in solar wind conditions in coming days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 12221101
Cocos Island 4 12221110
Darwin 5 22221102
Townsville 5 22221211
Learmonth 5 12231201
Alice Springs 4 12221101
Gingin 4 12221111
Canberra 3 12221100
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 12221200
Hobart 3 12221100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 01132100
Casey 15 34432223
Mawson 9 23322231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2221 2432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 10 G0
02 Apr 8 G0
03 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic region on UT day 31-Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are exected over 01-03 Apr.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 31/1425UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Poor-fair
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 31-Mar, with a weak solar radiation storm slightly (0.5db)
increasing absorption at polar latitudes. This S1-minor event
is expected to end by 02-Apr. HF conditions at other latitudes
are expected to be generally normal. Shortwave fadeouts are expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 150
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced.
02 Apr 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced.
03 Apr 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced.
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on
31 March and is current for 1-3 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 31-Mar were near predicted
values to 25% enhanced. Ionospheric equatorial scintillation
was observed in Weipa and Darwin during the interval 31/1127-1514UT.
MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted values to 15-20%
enhanced over 01-03 Apr. Shortwave fadeouts are expected on daylight
HF circuits.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 54600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list