[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 September 24 issued 2331 UT on 28 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Sep 29 09:31:26 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 195/147
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 195/147 195/147
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Sep was at the R0 level.
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. Newly arrived region AR3842 (S15E60,
gamma) is the largest active region on the solar disk and is
magnetically complex, however it has not yet produced any significant
flares. AR3834 (S15W38, beta), AR3835 (S23W15, beta) and AR3836
(S12E09, gamma) all showed spot development over the UT day.
All other numbered sunspots regions are either stable or in decay.
An unnumbered region has developed on the solar disk at N27W25
with beta magnetic complexity. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 29-Sep to 01-Oct. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on UT day 28-Sep. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 29-Sep to 01-Oct. No CMEs
have been observed over the UT-day. The solar wind speed increased
slightly on UT day 28-Sep ranging between 270 km/s to 360 km/s
and is currently at around 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +4 to -7 nT. A small jump in IMF strength was
observed at 28/0715UT, possibly due to a minor glancing CME impact.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels
over 29-Sep, with an increase possible on 30-Sep due to high
speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole currently
rotating towards a geoeffective position. The solar wind speed
is expected to be elevated on 01-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 01222312
Cocos Island 3 01212210
Darwin 7 12222312
Townsville 7 11222322
Learmonth 6 11222312
Alice Springs 6 11222312
Gingin 5 00222312
Canberra 6 00222322
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 01222322
Hobart 6 00222322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Sep :
Macquarie Island 9 00143411
Casey 10 23332222
Mawson 9 11222432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 1222 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 5 G0
30 Sep 8 G0
01 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 28-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 29-Sep to 01-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 28-Sep were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 29-Sep to 01-Oct. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep 139
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Sep 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Oct 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28-Sep were
near predicted monthly values to enhanced by up to 35% in the
northern Australian region and were near predicted monthly values
in the southern Australian region. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 29-Sep to 01-Oct
with the strongest enhancements occurring in the northern Australian
region. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 36900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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