[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 September 24 issued 2331 UT on 29 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Sep 30 09:31:05 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1253UT possible lower European
M1.7 1424UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 197/149
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 200/152 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Sep was at the R1 level,
with an M1.0 flare at 29/1253UT and an M1.7 flare at 29/1441UT.
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk and one unnumbered region. AR3842 (S15E47, gamma) is the
most magnetically complex active region on the solar disk and
produced the largest flare of the UT day, this region appeared
stable. AR3835 (S23W28, beta), AR3840 (N16W10, beta) and AR3841
(N12E36, beta) all showed spot development on 29-Sep. All other
numbered sunspots regions are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered
region has developed on the solar disk at S09E18 with beta magnetic
complexity, this region was responsible for the M1.0 flare at
29/1253UT. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over
30-Sep to 02-Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on UT day 29-Sep. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 30-Sep to 02-Oct. No geoeffective CMEs have been observed
over the UT-day. A small SW directed CME was observed from 29/0600UT
in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. This CME may be associated with
a small surface eruption at around S20W40 from 29/0516UT in SDO
imagery. This CME is not considered geoeffective. A broader,
slow, NE directed CME was observed from 29/0842UT in SOHO and
STEREO-A imagery. Coronal movement behind the eastern limb visible
in SDO and GOES SUVI from 29/0756UT suggests this is a farside
event. The solar wind speed increased on UT day 29-Sep ranging
between 300 km/s to 520 km/s and is currently at around 500 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14
nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +12 to -11
nT. A sustained period of negative Bz was observed from 29/0345UT
to 29/0820UT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to
increase over 30-Sep to 01-Oct due to high speed wind stream
effects from an equatorial coronal hole. A decline is possible
on 02-Oct as these effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 12333222
Cocos Island 7 22223212
Darwin 7 11223312
Townsville 12 12333333
Learmonth 11 22333322
Alice Springs 10 22333312
Gingin 10 22333213
Canberra 11 12333233
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 12333222
Hobart 10 12333223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep :
Macquarie Island 17 22544222
Casey 19 35433233
Mawson 16 33433224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1011 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 12 G0, chance G1
01 Oct 8 G0
02 Oct 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Sep. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 at Macquarie
Island and Casey station. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 30-Sep to 02-Oct, with a chance of G1 on 30-Sep due to ongoing
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 29-Sep were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 30-Sep to 02-Oct. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Oct 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Oct 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29-Sep were
near predicted monthly values to enhanced by up to 30%, with
stronger enhancements observed in the southern Australian region.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 30-Sep to 02-Oct. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 48800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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