[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 September 24 issued 2331 UT on 27 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Sep 28 09:31:35 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 26/2312UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 186/139
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Sep was at the R0 level,
with a C9.9 flare observed at 27/0800UT. There are currently
seven numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region, several active regions rotated off the visible disk over
27-Sep. AR3839 (S14E62, beta) was responsible for the C9.9 flare
during the UT day. AR3835 (S23W03, beta-gamma) is the most complex
region on the solar disk and the only one to show clear spot
development on 27-Sep. All other sunspots regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 28-30 Sep. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were
observed on UT day 27-Sep. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 28-30 Sep. No geoeffective CMEs have been observed.
A large, slow CME was observed from 27/0136UT in SOHO directed
to the southeast. There was no associated on disk activity for
this CME and modelling indicates this CME has no geoeffective
component. The solar wind speed declined to background levels
on UT day 27-Sep. The solar wind speed began the UT day near
370 km/s and declined to near 300 km/s by the end of the day.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -6
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background
levels over 28-29 Sep, with an increase possible on 30-Sep due
to high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole currently rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11112000
Cocos Island 2 11201000
Darwin 3 12112001
Townsville 2 11112001
Learmonth 3 12212000
Alice Springs 2 11112000
Gingin 2 21121000
Canberra 1 11111000
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 12222000
Hobart 3 12222000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep :
Macquarie Island 8 12343000
Casey 8 34221002
Mawson 9 34322100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 4522 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Sep 5 G0
29 Sep 5 G0
30 Sep 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 27-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 28-30 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 27-Sep were
generally normal at low and mid latitudes and normal to fair
at high latitudes. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 28-30 Sep. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Sep 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Sep 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Sep 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Sep 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 27-Sep were
enhanced by up to 40% in the northern Australian region and were
near predicted monthly values in the southern Australian region.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 28-30 Sep. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 44900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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