[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 September 24 issued 2331 UT on 26 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Sep 27 09:31:24 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 25/2312UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 181/134
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Sep was R1, with an isolated
M1 flare from the eastern limb. There are currently ten numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3837 (S11W29, beta) and AR3838 (N15E44,
beta) have shown some growth over the past day, but they remain
small and unremarkable regions. AR3834 (S15W13, beta) and AR3835
(S23E11, beta) have shown changes in their trailer spots, but
no overall growth. All other sunspots are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 27-29 Sep.
A CME can be seen to the solar southwest from 0924 UT, but this
has been assessed as a farside event. No other CMEs were observed
on UT day 26-Sep.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on UT day 26-Sep. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 27-29 Sep.
The solar wind environment was generally quiet
on UT day 26-Sep. The solar wind began the UT day near 500 km/s
and declined to near 350 km/s by the end of the day. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +3 to -4 nT. An increase
and decrease in the ACE EPAM low energy protons suggests the
CME from 22-Sep passed nearby the Earth but did not impact it.
A small equatorial coronal hole may briefly increase the solar
wind speed either on 28 or 29 Sep, but otherwise the solar wind
is expected to be near background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 32123101
Cocos Island 4 32112100
Darwin 5 22123101
Townsville 9 32224111
Learmonth 6 32123110
Alice Springs 6 32123100
Gingin 9 32224210
Canberra 6 22114101
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 23124101
Hobart 8 23224101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
Macquarie Island 16 25235210
Casey 11 33423111
Mawson 36 65413364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 34 4454 4643
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 6 G0
28 Sep 8 G0
29 Sep 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Sep. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 27-29 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 26-Sep were
generally normal at all latitudes. Equatorial scintillation was
present around local midnight hours. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be normal over 27-29 Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
28 Sep 135 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
29 Sep 135 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 106 was issued on
25 September and is current for 25-27 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 26-Sep were enhanced by up to 15% and depressed
by up to 25%. Scintillation was observed in Darwin and Weipa
from 1124 to 1333 UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
values to 15% enhanced over 27-29 Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 498 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 176000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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