[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 September 24 issued 2331 UT on 23 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Sep 24 09:31:11 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1457UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Sep was at the R1 level
due to an M1.3 flare at 23/1456UT produced by AR3836 (S12E75,
beta). There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. Newly numbered AR3836 is the largest region
on the disk and appears stable. AR3835 (S23E51, beta) has exhibited
spot growth over the UT day. AR3828 (S12W19, alpha) has shown
decay in its trailer spots. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 24-26 Sep. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 23-Sep increased, ranging from
330 to 455 km/s and is currently near 450 km/s. A weak solar
wind shock was observed at 23/1140UT, possibly indicative of
a weak CME arrival. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +10 to -11 nT. Several short periods of southward IMF conditions
were observed from 23/1140-1605UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 24-26 Sep due to the combined effects
of a small equatorial coronal hole and a glancing CME arrival
on 25-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 11134311
Cocos Island 6 11123311
Darwin 8 11224311
Townsville 10 11234321
Learmonth 16 10235512
Alice Springs 9 01234311
Gingin 13 11134521
Canberra 7 01133311
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 10134311
Hobart 10 01144321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Sep :
Macquarie Island 20 00255521
Casey 12 23333313
Mawson 29 32334722
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 0002 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Sep 14 G0-G1
25 Sep 18 G0-G1
26 Sep 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 23-Sep, with some isolated periods of G1 observed
at Learmonth and Gingin. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G3 observed at Mawson. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 24-25 Sep due to the combined effects of the current elevated
solar wind environment, coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
from a small equatorial coronal hole and a glancing CME arrival
on 25-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 26-Sep,
with a chance of G1.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communications were generally normal on 23-Sep,
with equatorial regions possibly being affected by ionospheric
scintillation. HF radio communication conditions are generally
expected to be normal over 24-26 Sep, with normal to fair conditions
expected on 25-Sep due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Sep 148
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Sep 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Sep 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Sep 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 105 was issued on
22 September and is current for 22-24 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 23-Sep were near predicted
monthly values to 15-20% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. Ionospheric scintillation was observed
at Darwin, Niue and Weipa over the interval 23/0748-1540UT. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 24-26 Sep. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 76100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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