[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 September 24 issued 2331 UT on 22 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Sep 23 09:31:12 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.7 2139UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Sep was R1, with an M3.7 flare
from AR3834 (S15E40, beta). There are currently seven numbered
sunspots on the solar disk, however all sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0 with
a chance for R1 over 23-25 Sep.
Some very faint CME material can be seen leaving the southwest
quadrant from 22/1936 UT, however this is still under analysis
as to whether it is from the frontside of the Sun. A CME was
associated with the R1 flare from 22/1948 UT and is currently
being analysed if it will be geoeffective.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 23-25 Sep.
The solar wind environment was at background levels on UT day 22-Sep.
The solar wind speed ranged between 340 to 440 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south
IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -5 nT. The solar wind environment
is expected to remain at background levels on 23-Sep, before
becoming mildly disturbed due to the onset of a small equatorial
coronal hole by late 24-Sep or more likely 25-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11121201
Cocos Island 2 11121100
Darwin 3 01121112
Townsville 4 11121212
Learmonth 3 11121201
Alice Springs 2 00021111
Gingin 3 11120201
Canberra 2 00020201
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11020201
Hobart 2 10020201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 00020200
Casey 9 33331112
Mawson 6 12322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2121 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 6 G0
24 Sep 10 G0, very slight chance G1
25 Sep 14 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 22-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 23-25, with a chance for G1 on 25-Sep due to
a small equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communications were generally normal on 22-Sep,
with equatorial regions possibly being affected by scintillation.
HF radio communication conditions are generally expected to be
normal over 23-25 Sep, with mild degradations in high latitudes
by the end of the period due to a coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep 144
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep 140 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
24 Sep 140 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
25 Sep 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 105 was issued on
22 September and is current for 22-24 Sep. On UT day 22-Sep maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region were near
predicted values to enhanced by 20%.Sporadic E was observed in
Townsville and spread-F was observed in Darwin and Cocos Islands
during local night hours. Scintillation was observed from 0858
to 1259 UT in Darwin Weipa and Niue. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted values to 20% enhanced over 23-25 Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 64900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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