[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 September 24 issued 2331 UT on 21 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Sep 22 09:31:07 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Sep was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently seven numbered sunspots on
the visible solar disk. AR3828 (S14E10, beta) and AR3833 (N21W10,
beta) have grown in their trailer spots over the past day, and
all other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be R0 with a chance for R1 over 22-24
Sep.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on UT day 21-Sep.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 21-Sep.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 22-Sep.
The solar wind environment was at background levels on 21-Sep.
The solar wind speed ranged between 324 to 478 km/s and is currently
near 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was
+7 to -6 nT. The solar wind is generally expected to remain near
background levels over 22-24 Sep, but may become mildly disturbed
due to a small coronal hole by the end of the period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 12221011
Cocos Island 4 22221110
Darwin 4 12221111
Townsville 6 23222111
Learmonth 5 22221121
Alice Springs 4 12221021
Gingin 4 22211021
Canberra 4 12221011
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 12221011
Hobart 4 12221011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 11120011
Casey 10 34311122
Mawson 11 34311132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1011 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Sep 6 G0
23 Sep 6 G0
24 Sep 12 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 21-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are generally expected over 22-24 Sep, with a slight chance of
G1 by the end of the period due to a coronal hole influence.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were mostly normal
on UT day 21-Sep. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 22-24 Sep.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Sep 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Sep 140 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
23 Sep 140 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
24 Sep 140 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 21-Sep maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were
near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. Scintillation
was observed in Darwin, Weipa and Niue from 0725 to 1559 UT.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 20% enhanced
over 22-24 Sep.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 75300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list