[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 20 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Sep 21 09:30:55 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Sep was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently four numbered sunspots on the
solar disk. AR3828 (S12E23, beta) and AR3831 (N12W05, beta) have
shown slight growth in their trailer spots, but otherwise all
other sunspots are stable. Solar activity is expected to be R0
with a chance for R1 over 21-23 Sep.
No CMEs were observed on UT day 20-Sep. Some material may have
been ejected from AR3831 from 1458 UT, however is too faint to be
seen on coronagraph images for any subsequent modelling.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 20-Sep
and are expected over 21-23 Sep.
The solar wind environment on UT day 20-Sep was quiet.
The solar wind speed ranged between 375 to 471 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was
+4 to -3 nT. The solar wind environment is expected to remain
at background levels over 21-23 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11010012
Cocos Island 2 11010002
Darwin 2 11110012
Townsville 3 22010022
Learmonth 3 11000013
Alice Springs 3 11000013
Gingin 2 01000013
Canberra 2 12010012
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11010013
Hobart 2 11010012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 11010011
Casey 11 34321123
Mawson 23 32222117
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 21 5213 4542
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 8 G0
22 Sep 8 G0
23 Sep 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 20-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 21-23 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day were generally
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
normal over 21-23 Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep 147
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep 140 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
22 Sep 140 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
23 Sep 140 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted values to 35% enhanced. Scintillation
was observed from 0911-1219 UT in Darwin and Niue. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values to 25% enhanced over 21-23 Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 72600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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