[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 19 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Sep 20 09:30:54 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Sep was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3825 (S15W12,
gamma) is still the largest and most magnetically complex region
on the disk but is in decay and has not produced any notable
flares for several days. AR3827 (S28E27, beta) and AR3828 (S12E45,
beta-delta) both showed development over the UT day, as did newly
developed region AR3831 (N12E08, beta). All other sunspot regions
are stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level,
with a chance of R1 over 20-22 Sep. The >10MeV proton flux was
close to background levels over 19-Sep. S0 conditions are expected
over 20-22 Sep. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A
pair of slow, northwest directed CMEs were observed but both
are considered farside events. The solar wind speed on UT day
19-Sep was slightly in decline, ranging from 370 to 530 km/s
and is currently near 390 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -9 nT. A sustained period of -Bz was observed
from 19/1015 to 19/1740UT. The solar wind speed is expected to
slowly decline towards background levels over 20-22 Sep as CME
and coronal hole high speed wind stream effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: G1
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 22233421
Cocos Island 8 22232320
Darwin 10 22133421
Townsville 12 22134422
Learmonth 14 22233531
Alice Springs 13 22133521
Gingin 16 32234521
Canberra 10 22133421
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 22234421
Hobart 12 22234421
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Sep :
Macquarie Island 22 23245541
Casey 22 54433333
Mawson 34 54443562
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 4211 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 10 G0, chance of G1
21 Sep 8 G0
22 Sep 5 G0
COMMENT: Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Australian region on UT day 19-Sep with a period of G1 conditions
observed at Learmonth, Alice Springs and Gingin. Mostly G1 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with a period of G2 at
Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected
on 20-Sep as CME and coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
wane. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 21-22 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 19-Sep improved
over the course of the day, poor to fair conditions were observed
at high latitudes and fair to normal conditions were observed
at mid and low latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
over 20-22 Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep 152
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 160 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Sep 160 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Sep 160 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the northern Australian
region on UT day 19-Sep were generally near predicted monthly
values to 20-40% enhanced, with the strongest enhancements observed
during local night. MUFs in the southern Australian region were
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 20-22 Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 439 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 96200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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