[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 September 24 issued 2331 UT on 24 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Sep 25 09:31:14 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 172/126 170/124 168/122
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Sep was at the R0 level
with several C-class flares. There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3836 (S12E61, beta-delta) is the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the disk and appears stable. AR3833 (N22W52,
beta-Gamma) and AR3835 (S23E38, gamma) showed small amounts of
spot development over the UT day. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels over 24-26 Sep. S0 radiation storm conditions were
observed on 24-Sep. S0 conditions are expected on 25-27 Sep.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed over the UT day. The solar
wind speed on UT day 24-Sep was in decline, ranging from 486
to 378 km/s and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -9 nT. The solar wind is expected to be
slightly elevated over 25-26 Sep due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects and a possible glancing impact from a CME
first observed on 22-Sep. A decline in solar wind speed is expected
on 27-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 43222223
Cocos Island 8 33212222
Darwin 11 43212223
Townsville 13 43323223
Learmonth 15 53222233
Alice Springs 10 33222223
Gingin 13 43232233
Canberra 11 33223223
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 33233223
Hobart 12 33233223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Sep :
Macquarie Island 20 33255322
Casey 14 44322223
Mawson 15 33333333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 1113 3432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Sep 18 G0-G1
26 Sep 12 G0, chance of G1
27 Sep 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 57 was issued on 24 September
and is current for 24-25 Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 24-Sep, with
an isolated period of G1 observed at Learmonth at the start of
the UT day. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region, with G1 conditions observed at Macquarie Island. G0-G1
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 25-Sep due to the combined
effects of the current elevated solar wind environment, coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects from a small equatorial coronal
hole and a glancing impact on 25-Sep from a CME first observed
on 22-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 26-27 Sep,
with a chance of G1 on 26-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
on 24-Sep. HF radio communication conditions are generally expected
to be normal over 25-27 Sep, with normal to fair conditions expected
at high latitudes on 25-Sep due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Sep 148
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Sep 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Sep 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Sep 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Sep were near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Townsville
during local night hours. Ionospheric scintillation was observed
at Darwin, Niue and Weipa over the interval 24/0848-1328UT. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 25-27 Sep. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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