[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 12 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Sep 13 09:30:50 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.0 0012UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.1 0404UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0432UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.7 0618UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X1.3 0943UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1322UT possible lower European
M6.8 1443UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.9 2219UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 201/153
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 210/161 210/161 205/156
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Sep was at the R3 level
due to an X1.3 flare at 12/0943UT produced by an unnumbered region
currently near S15E80. An R2 level flare was observed at 12/1443UT
produced by AR3811 (S10W93, beta). Several flares at the R1 level
were also observed over the UT day. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3824 (S04E21, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically
complex region on the disk and has shown decay in its trailer
spots. AR3814 (N16W26, gamma) has shown decay in its leader spots.
An unnumbered region recently rotated over the eastern limb and
appears stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R2 level over
13-15 Sep, with a chance of R3. The solar proton flux was mostly
stable on UT day 12-Sep, remaining at the S0 level. S0 solar
proton conditions are expected over 13-15 Sep, with a chance
of S1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A CME first
observed on 11-Sep has been reanalysed. This CME was observed
in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery at 11/0209UT, likely associated
with an M1.0 flare at 10/2350UT produced by AR3814. Modelling
indicates this CME is geoeffective, with an estimated arrival
at Earth on 14-Sep at 04:00UT +/- 12 hours. The solar wind speed
on UT day 12-Sep increased, ranging from 355 to 600 km/s and
is currently near 500 km/s. Solar wind shocks were observed at
12/0254UT and 12/0821UT, indicative of CME arrivals. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 30 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +17 to -26 nT. Sustained
periods of southward IMF conditions were observed throughout
the UT day. A moderate sized coronal hole is visible in the northwest
solar quadrant. A second moderate sized coronal hole is currently
crossing the central meridian near S20-40. The solar wind may
be influenced by the northern coronal hole from 15-Sep, and the
southern coronal hole from 16-Sep. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 13-15 Sep due to the arrival of a CME
on 14-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: G2
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 34 24455463
Cocos Island 28 24444363
Darwin 28 24444363
Townsville 33 24454464
Learmonth 45 25455473
Alice Springs 33 24455363
Gingin 34 23455464
Canberra 30 13454463
Kennaook Cape Grim 39 13565463
Hobart 56 14575473
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Sep :
Macquarie Island 63 13566483
Casey 38 45643363
Mawson 71 44575384
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 12 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 40
Planetary 70
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1111 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 20 G0-G1
14 Sep 30 G1-G2
15 Sep 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 12 September
and is current for 12-13 Sep. G2 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 12-Sep due to the
arrival of at least two CMEs. Isolated periods of G3 were observed
at Learmonth and Hobart. G3 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G4 observed
at Macquarie Island and Mawson. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on UT day 13-Sep as CME effects abate. G1-G2 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 14-Sep due to the arrival of a CME
first observed on 11-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 15-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 12-Sep were
mostly normal. Normal to fair HF conditions are expected on 13-Sep.
Fair to poor HF conditions are expected on 14-Sep due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity, returning to mostly normal by 14-Sep. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 151
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 140 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 120 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Sep were near predicted monthly values to
15-40% enhanced. Southern Australian MUFs were 20% depressed
after local dawn due to overnight geomagnetic activity. Strong
spread F was observed at Hobart. Ionospheric scintillation was
observed at Niue and Weipa over the interval 12/0622-0959UT.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced over 13-15 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 47600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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