[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 13 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Sep 14 09:30:52 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0137UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.1 0434UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.8 0531UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M5.4 0656UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1509UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.4 1756UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 2049UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 186/139
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity R1, chance of R2,R3R1, chance of R2,R3R1, chance of R2,R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Sep was at the R2 level
due to an M5.3 flare at 13/0656UT produced from over the western
limb. Several flares at the R1 level were also observed over
the UT day. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3814 (N16W42,
beta), AR3815 (S25W68, alpha) and AR3825 (S15W68, gamma) all
produced R1 level flare events over the UT day. AR3814 showed
slight trailer spot decay, whilst AR3815 was stable. AR3825 is
stable but is the most significant sunspot group on the solar
disk due to its complexity and the fact that it has only recently
arrived on the disk and will be in a geoeffective location for
most of the following week. AR3822 (N14W28, beta), AR3823 (S19W84,
alpha) and AR3824 (S04E05, beta) showed development over the
UT day. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 14-16 Sep,
with a chance of R2 and R3 events. The solar proton flux was
slightly elevated and slowly in decline on 13-Sep. S0 solar proton
conditions are expected over 14-16 Sep, with a chance of S1.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A broad, bright CME
directed to the south west is visible in STEREO-A imagery from
13/0223UT. This CME is associated with flaring activity on or
behind the western limb from the start of the UT-day. Modelling
indicates this CME is not geoeffective. The solar wind speed
on UT day 13-Sep was steady, ranging from 420 to 560 km/s and
is currently near 460 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -9 nT. Recent CME impact influences appear
to be easing. An increase in solar wind speed is expected early
on 14-Sep due to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed
on 11-Sep. Coronal hole high speed wind stream influences are
possible over 15-16 Sep further enhancing solar wind speed. Due
to these influences, the solar wind speed is expected to be elevated
for 14-16 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 19 33443334
Cocos Island 14 32333333
Darwin 15 32343333
Townsville 19 33344334
Learmonth 23 33354344
Alice Springs 16 33343333
Gingin 22 32343445
Canberra 18 23443334
Kennaook Cape Grim 23 33544334
Hobart 26 33554334
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Sep :
Macquarie Island 55 45765454
Casey 22 43433335
Mawson 71 76553666
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 36
Planetary 78 1356 7784
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 30 G1-G2
15 Sep 20 G0-G1
16 Sep 15 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 53 was issued on 13 September
and is current for 13-14 Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 13-Sep. Isolated
periods of G1 were observed at Learmonth and Gingin, Cape Grim
and Hobart. Mostly G3 geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with G0 conditions observed at Casey. G1-G2
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 14-Sep due to the arrival
of a CME first observed on 11-Sep. G0-G1 conditions are expected
on 15-Sep and G0 conditions with a chance of G1 are expected
on 16-Sep due to a combination of ongoing CME effects and coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
15 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 13-Sep were
mostly poor to fair at high latitudes and mostly normal to fair
at mid latitudes. Mostly normal conditions were observed at low
latitudes. Mostly fair HF conditions are expected on 14-Sep,
with a chance for further degradations due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. Normal to fair conditions are expected over 15-16 Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep 120 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Sep 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 101 was issued on
13 September and is current for 13-15 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the northern Australian region on UT day 13-Sep were
near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the southern Australian
region were depressed by up to 25%, with the strongest depressions
observed during local daylight hours. Spread F was observed at
Hobart. Ionospheric scintillation was observed at Weipa at 1028UT.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 14-Sep,
with a chance of degradations in the southern Australian region,
and near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 15-16
Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C4.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 496 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 189000 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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