[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 11 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Sep 12 09:30:51 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 10/2350UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.8 1236UT possible lower European
M1.4 1518UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.6 1726UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.0 1752UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 207/158
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 200/152 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Sep was at the R1 level
due to four M-class flares, the largest of which was an M2.0
flare at 11/1752UT produced by AR3814 (N16W16, beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3814 is the most magnetically complex region
on the disk and has shown some decay in its leader spots over
the UT day. AR3811 (S10W81, beta) produced an M1.8 flare at 11/1530UT
and will soon rotate over the western limb. Newly numbered AR3824
(S04E31, beta) has shown rapid spot growth since appearing on
the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over
12-14 Sep, with a chance of R2. The solar proton flux declined
on UT day 11-Sep, remaining at the S0 level. S0 solar proton
conditions are expected over 12-14 Sep, with a slight chance
of S1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 11-Sep was mostly stable, ranging from 335 to
400 km/s and is currently near 355 km/s. A weak solar wind shock
was observed at 11/1423UT, indicative of a CME arrival, likely
a filament eruption first observed on 08-Sep. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to increase over 12-14 due to the arrival of a CME
first observed on 10-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 12122321
Cocos Island 5 11122320
Darwin 7 22122322
Townsville 9 22222332
Learmonth 8 12222331
Alice Springs 7 12222322
Gingin 7 11222331
Canberra 4 11121221
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 02121221
Hobart 4 02121221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 01001111
Casey 9 24321221
Mawson 10 22213333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2011 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 15 G0, chance of G1
13 Sep 30 G1-G2
14 Sep 12 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 11 September
and is current for 11-13 Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 11-Sep.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 12-Sep, with a chance
of G1. G1-G2 conditions are expected on 13-Sep due to an anticipated
impact from a CME first observed on 10-Sep. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 14-Sep as CME effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1625UT 09/09, Ended at 0410UT 10/09
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 11-Sep were
normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 12-Sep. Fair
to poor HF conditions are expected on 13-Sep due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity, returning to mostly normal by 14-Sep. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 168
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30-35% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep 170 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
13 Sep 130 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 100 was issued on
11 September and is current for 11-12 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 11-Sep were 15-35%
enhanced, with the strongest enhancements observed during local
night hours. Ionospheric scintillation was observed at Darwin,
Niue and Weipa over the interval 11/0837-1320UT. MUFs are expected
to be 15-25% enhanced on 12-Sep, declining to near monthly predicted
values on 13-Sep due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Degradations
are possible at high latitude locations on this day. MUFs are
expected to recover by 14-Sep, returning to near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 80400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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