[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 08 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Sep 9 09:30:55 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 1530UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 228/178
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 225/175 225/175 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Sep was at the R1 level
due to an M1.5 flare at 08/1530UT produced by AR3813 (S22W15,
beta-gamma). There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. AR3814 (N16E24, beta-gamma-delta)
is the most magnetically complex region on the disk and has shown
some decay in its leader spots. AR3811 (S10W41, beta-gamma) has
exhibited spot development over the UT day, particularly in its
leader spots. Newly numbered AR3821 (N14W36, beta) has shown
rapid spot growth. AR3806 (S10W74, beta) will soon rotate over
the western limb. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level
over 09-11 Sep, with a chance of R2. The solar proton flux declined
on UT day 08-Sep, remaining at the S0 level. S0 solar proton
conditions are expected over 09-11 Sep, with a slight chance
of S1. A filament eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery
from 08/0007UT near N12W22. A subsequent associated partial halo
CME was observed in coronagraph imagery from 08/0136UT. Modelling
indicates this CME is geoeffective, with an estimated arrival
at Earth on 10-Sep at 2200UT +/- 10 hours. A second filament
eruption was observed at 08/1517UT near S18W29, associated with
the aforementioned M1.5 flare from AR3813. No significant CME
has been observed associated with this eruption. No other Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 08-Sep
was mostly stable, ranging from 335 to 395 km/s and is currently
near 335 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+7 to -9 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near
background levels on 09-Sep, then increase late on 10-Sep due
to a CME arrival.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Cocos Island 4 22211111
Darwin 4 22201111
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 6 32211112
Alice Springs 5 23201111
Gingin 5 32211110
Canberra 2 12100012
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 22111121
Hobart 5 23211021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 12101010
Casey 13 44422112
Mawson 11 33321114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 6 2111 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 10 G0
10 Sep 14 G0-G1
11 Sep 22 G1, chance of G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 08-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 09-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 10-Sep, increasing to G1 late in the UT day due to the arrival
of a CME first observed on 08-Sep. G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 11-Sep, with a chance of G2.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 08-Sep were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal over 09-10 Sep, with normal-fair conditions
expected at mid latitudes on 11-Sep due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep 161
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 85% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30-35% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep 165 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
10 Sep 165 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
11 Sep 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Sep were near predicted monthly values to
40% enhanced. Ionospheric scintillation was observed at Darwin
over the interval 08/1250-1330UT. MUFs are expected to be 15-25%
enhanced over 09-10 Sep and near predicted monthly values on
11-Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 61400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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