[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 09 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Sep 10 09:30:49 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0332UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.8 0545UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.5 0850UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.7 1027UT possible lower European
M1.0 1217UT possible lower European
M3.4 1708UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 215/165
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 215/165 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Sep was at the R1 level.
Solar region AR3806 (S11W90, beta) produced four M1 class flares
including a long during M1.0 flare at 09/0332UT. Solar region
AR3814 (N16E12, beta-gamma) produced the M3.4 flare. This flare
event did not appear to have an associated CME. Region AR3811
(S10W53, beta) contributed an M1.0 flare. Solar region AR3806
rotated off disk late in the UT day. Solar region AR3814 and
AR3816 (S12W15, beta) have both grown. The smaller surrounding
spots of region AR3811 have redistributed. There are currently
eight numbered solar regions on the visible solar disk. Other
regions are either stable or in decay. A new solar region appears
to be just behind the northeast solar limb at solar latitude
N20. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 10-12
Sep, with a chance of R2. An S1-Minor solar radiation storm is
currently in progress and is expected to continue into 10-Sep.
The long duration M1 flare may be the origin of this solar proton
event. No new Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A west
directed CME associated with the long duration M1 flare from
AR3806 on the western solar limb was observed from 09/0125UT.
This CME has been modelled as an Earth miss. A large/fast CME
was observed to the northeast from 09/0524UT and is considered
a far side event and has also been modelled as an Earth miss.
A north-northeast CME was observed from 09/1330UT in association
with an erupting solar limb prominence, directed north out of
the ecliptic plane. The solar wind speed on UT day 09-Sep slightly
increased ranging from 340 to 460 km/s and is currently near
420 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+12 to -8 nT. The IMF Bz component fluctuated mildly southwards
after 09/1400UT. A CME associated with a filament eruption on
08-Sep is expected to arrive at Earth on 10-Sep at 2200UT +/-
10 hours, with the solar wind speed expected to increase from
late in the UT day on 10-Sep and into 11-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 22220222
Cocos Island 5 22220221
Darwin 6 22221222
Townsville 7 23221222
Learmonth 7 22321221
Alice Springs 7 22320222
Gingin 9 32320232
Canberra 5 22210122
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 22320122
Hobart 5 22220122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Sep :
Macquarie Island 3 12101121
Casey 17 33432343
Mawson 19 43321354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 6 2211 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 14 G0-G1
11 Sep 22 G1, chance G2
12 Sep 15 G1 early in UT day then declining to G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 9 September
and is current for 10-11 Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 09-Sep. Mostly G0 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region with an isolated period
of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are mostly expected
on 10-Sep, increasing to G1 late in the UT day due to the arrival
of a CME first observed on 08-Sep. G1 geomagnetic conditions
are then expected on 11-Sep, with a chance of G2.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 09 09 2024 1625UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
11 Sep Normal Fair Fair-poor
12 Sep Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 09-Sep were
fair to normal. Increased absorption may have been experienced
at times at polar regions due to an in progress S1-Minor solar
radiation storm, which is expected to continue into the 10-Sep.
Equatorial spread F was observed during local night hours. Mildly
degraded conditions are expected for middle to high latitudes
on 11-Sep due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 164
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25-45%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 165 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
11 Sep 140 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 99 was issued on
9 September and is current for 9-11 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 09-Sep were near predicted
monthly values to 45% enhanced. Ionospheric scintillation was
observed at Darwin over the interval 09/1306-1640UT. Spread F
was observed during local night hours at Darwin. A minor fadeout
impacting the lower HF frequencies was observed 09/0234-0415UT.
MUFs are expected to be 15-25% enhanced over 10-Sep and near
predicted monthly values on 11-12 Sep with mildly degraded conditions
at times due to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.
Brief 15% depressions are possible after local dawn on 11-12-Sep
for southern region Australia. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 58300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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