[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 07 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Sep 8 09:30:55 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0749UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 222/172
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 220/170 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Sep was at the R1 level
due to a long duration M1.6 flare at 07/0749UT produced by AR3815
(S30E13, beta). There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3813
(S22W02, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region
on the disk and has decayed over the UT day. AR3814 (N16E37,
beta) has exhibited spot development over the 24-hour period,
particularly in its trailer spots. Two unnumbered regions recently
appeared on the visible disk near N12W22 (beta) and S15W37 (beta).
Both unnumbered regions have shown spot growth. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R1 level over 08-10 Sep, with a chance of R2. The
solar proton flux declined on UT day 07-Sep, remaining at the
S0 level. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 08-10
Sep, with a chance of S1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
A southward CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery from 07/0800UT. This CME is associated with the M1.6
flare from AR3815. Modelling indicates this CME will pass underneath
the Earth and does not contain a geoeffective component. The
solar wind speed on UT day 07-Sep decreased, ranging from 320
to 415 km/s and is currently near 340 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +10 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels over 08-10 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 22111011
Cocos Island 3 22111010
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 5 22212111
Learmonth 6 32221111
Alice Springs 3 22111011
Gingin 5 32211011
Canberra 3 22101011
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 22111011
Hobart 3 22102011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 12002000
Casey 17 45432122
Mawson 12 33222134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1012 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 8 G0
09 Sep 5 G0
10 Sep 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 08-10 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 07-Sep were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal over 08-10 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep 155
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 105% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
09 Sep 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
10 Sep 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 98 was issued on
6 September and is current for 6-8 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 07-Sep were near predicted
monthly values to 35% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be 15-25%
enhanced over 08-10 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 91500 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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