[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 06 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Sep 7 09:30:58 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 249/199
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 245/195 245/195 250/200
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Sep was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3813 (S22E11, beta) is the largest region on the disk
and has exhibited spot development over the UT day. AR3815 (S30E25,
beta) has shown mild spot growth. AR3816 (S12E23, beta) has shown
mild growth in its trailer spot. An unnumbered region is visible
near S12E55 (beta) and has shown growth. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R1 level over 07-09 Sep, with a chance of R2. The solar
proton flux declined on UT day 06-Sep, remaining at the S0 level.
S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 07-09 Sep, with
a chance of S1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A
partial filament eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery
from 06/1613UT near S22E03. No CME has been observed associated
with this eruption. The solar wind speed on UT day 06-Sep decreased,
ranging from 345 to 415 km/s and is currently near 375 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -7
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background
levels over 07-09 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11112002
Cocos Island 3 11212001
Darwin 4 11222002
Townsville 4 21112012
Learmonth 3 21112001
Alice Springs 3 11212002
Gingin 3 11112002
Canberra 3 10112012
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11112002
Hobart 3 10112012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Sep :
Macquarie Island 8 10025011
Casey 10 33422112
Mawson 9 21221015
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2102 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 5 G0
08 Sep 5 G0
09 Sep 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 06-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Mawson and Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 07-09 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 06-Sep were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal over 07-09 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 163
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25-40% during local night and after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
08 Sep 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
09 Sep 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 98 was issued on
6 September and is current for 6-8 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 06-Sep were near predicted
monthly values to 30% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be 15-25% enhanced
over 07-09 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 87400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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