[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 05 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Sep 6 09:30:51 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0020UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.1 0325UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.8 0856UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.3 1325UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 241/190
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 235/185 225/175 225/175
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Sep was at the R1 level
due to an M1.0 flare at 05/0020UT, an M1.1 flare at 05/0325UT,
an M1.1 flare at 05/0344UT, an M2.8 flare at 05/0856UT, an M1.6
fare at 05/0942UT, an M1.3 flare at 05/1325UT. There are currently
six numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3807
(S15W84, beta) was responsible for most of the flares on 05-Sep
and appears stable as it rotates off the solar disk. AR3806 (S10W34,
beta-gamma) and AR3813 (S22E23, beta-gamma) are the most magnetically
complex sunspots on the solar disk and developed over the UT
day, as did AR3811 (S10W01, beta). All other sunspot regions
are stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level
over 06-08 Sep, with a chance of R2. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux as measured by GOES was elevated and in decline over
05-Sep below the S1 threshold. S0 conditions are expected over
06-08 Sep, with a chance of S1 on 06-Sep. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. A fast, halo CME is visible from 05/0724UT
in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. There is no clear on disk or flaring
activity associated with this event and it is considered to be
far side and not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day
05-Sep was in slight decline over the UT day, ranging from 350
to 426 km/s and is currently near 360 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue to decline towards background levels over 06-08 Sep
as CME impact effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 22110102
Cocos Island 2 12110000
Darwin 3 22110102
Townsville 4 22110112
Learmonth 3 22210101
Alice Springs 3 22110102
Gingin 3 22110102
Canberra 2 12000002
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 12110102
Hobart 3 12110102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 14 44431212
Mawson 8 33210223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 13 1014 5322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 5 G0
07 Sep 5 G0
08 Sep 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 05-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 06-08 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 05-Sep were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal over 06-08 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep 163
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 165 Near to 15-30% above predicted monthly values
07 Sep 165 Near to 15-30% above predicted monthly values
08 Sep 160 Near to 15-20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 97 was issued on
3 September and is current for 4-6 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 05-Sep were near predicted
monthly values to 35% enhanced, with stronger enhancements generally
observed during local night. MUFs are expected to be 15-30% enhanced
over 06-08 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 74300 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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