[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 04 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Sep 5 09:30:49 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0255UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0456UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0601UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1321UT possible lower European
M1.2 2001UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 262/212
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 260/210 250/200 240/189
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Sep was at the R1 level
due to an M1.4 flare at 04/0255UT, an M1.0 flare at 04/0601UT,
an M1.0 flare at 04/0611UT, an M1.0 flare at 04/1321UT and an
M1.2 flare at 04/2000UT. There are currently seven numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region.
AR3813 (S22E37, beta-gamma) was responsible for most of the flare
activity and showed minor trailer movement during the UT-day.
AR3806 (S10W19, beta-gamma) and AR3811 (S10E14, beta) also produced
flares on 04-Sep. These areas both showed development, as did
AR3807 (S15W69, beta). An unnumbered region developed near S12E08
with alpha magnetic complexity. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
the R1 level over 05-07 Sep, with a chance of R2. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux as measured by GOES was elevated but
in decline over 04-Sep and did not cross the S1 threshold. S0
conditions are expected over 05-07 Sep, with a chance of S1 on
05-Sep. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. An eruption
is visible on the disk at around S17E22 concurrent with the M1.2
flare at 04/2000UT. No CME associated with this event is visible
in available imagery, further analysis will be performed when
more imagery becomes available. The solar wind speed on UT day
04-Sep increased rapidly between 0900UT and 1100UT (the actual
time cannot be determined due to data outages). The wind speed
ended the day slightly in decline. The solar wind speed ranged
from 320 to 463 km/s and is currently near 400 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 26 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +20 to -10 nT. The sudden
increase in solar wind speed was correlated with a peak in IMF
conditions and suggests an unexpected CME impact occurred between
0900UT and 1100UT. The solar wind speed is expected to be in
gradual decline over 05-06 Sep towards background levels and
is expected to be at background levels on 07-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 12243212
Cocos Island 9 12243211
Darwin 10 22243212
Townsville 15 22254213
Learmonth 15 22354212
Alice Springs 12 12253212
Gingin 9 12243211
Canberra 8 12243102
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 11243212
Hobart 9 11243212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 00133201
Casey 11 23332322
Mawson 9 12232323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 7 22112321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 8 G0
06 Sep 5 G0
07 Sep 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were generally observed in
the Australian region on UT day 04-Sep, with a period of G1 observed
at Darwin, Townsville, Learmonth and Alice Springs coinciding
with the unexpected CME impact. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 05-07 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 04-Sep were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal over 05-07 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep 173
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep 170 Near to 15-30% above predicted monthly values
06 Sep 170 Near to 15-30% above predicted monthly values
07 Sep 170 Near to 15-30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 97 was issued on
3 September and is current for 4-6 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 04-Sep were near predicted
monthly values to 65% enhanced, with stronger enhancements generally
observed during local night. MUFs are expected to be 15-30% enhanced
over 05-07 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.15e+6
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.84e+5
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.34e+7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C4.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 43600 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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