[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 03 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Sep 4 09:30:59 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 02/2301UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.4 0722UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.3 1602UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 242/191
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 245/195 250/200 240/189
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Sep was at the R1 level
due to an M3.3 flare at 03/1602UT produced by AR3813 (S22E57,
beta). This region also produced an M1.4 flare at 03/0722UT.
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3813 was responsible
for most of the flare activity and has shown some decay in its
leader spots. AR3806 (S10E01, beta-gamma) has exhibited spot
development over the UT day. AR3811 (S10E34, beta) has shown
spot growth. An unnumbered region is visible near N07E45 (alpha)
and has decayed. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level
over 04-06 Sep, with a chance of R2. The solar proton flux remained
enhanced on UT day 03-Sep, but still at the S0 level. An increase
in the 50MeV and 100MeV proton fluxes was observed at 03/0915UT
following the farside eruption. S0 solar proton conditions are
expected over 04-06 Sep, with a chance of S1. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. A halo CME was observed, visible in
STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 03/0809UT. This CME is considered
a farside event and therefore not geoeffective. The solar wind
speed on UT day 03-Sep decreased, ranging from 365 to 450 km/s
and is currently near 380 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels over 04-06 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Cocos Island 3 12110111
Darwin 4 22200112
Townsville 4 12111112
Learmonth 4 22211111
Alice Springs 3 12210101
Gingin 2 11211001
Canberra 3 11121011
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 12121001
Hobart 3 22121001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 01233100
Casey 11 33432102
Mawson 8 13421111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2211 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 8 G0
05 Sep 6 G0
06 Sep 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 03-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 04-06 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 03-Sep were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal over 04-06 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep 166
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 85% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15-20% during local night and after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30-35% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep 170 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
05 Sep 170 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
06 Sep 170 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 97 was issued on
3 September and is current for 4-6 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 03-Sep were near predicted
monthly values to 65% enhanced. Ionospheric scintillation was
observed at Niue and Weipa over the interval 03/0910-1340UT.
MUFs are expected to be 15-35% enhanced over 04-06 Sep. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 97000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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