[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 September 24 issued 2330 UT on 02 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Sep 3 09:30:48 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 01/2249UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.9 0526UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.8 1328UT possible lower European
M2.9 1343UT possible lower European
M1.4 2011UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.5 2301UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 238/187
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 240/189 245/195 250/200
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Sep was at the R1 level
due to several M-class flares, the largest of which was an M2.9
flare at 02/1343UT produced by AR3813 (S22E71, beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. Newly numbered AR3813
rotated over the eastern limb over the previous UT day and produced
most of the observed flares on 02-Sep. This region has shown
some growth in its intermediate spots. AR3807 (S15W34, beta-gamma-delta)
has exhibited growth in its intermediate spots. AR3806 (S10E14,
beta-gamma) has shown some redistribution of its spots over the
UT day. AR3811 (S04E47, beta) has developed a small leader spot.
A small unnumbered region is visible near N08E60 (alpha) and
has shown spot growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels
over 03-05 Sep. The solar proton flux was enhanced on UT day
02-Sep, but remained at the S0 level. S0 solar proton conditions
are expected over 03-05 Sep, with a chance of S1. Several CMEs
were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. The solar
wind speed on UT day 02-Sep increased, ranging from 385 to 455
km/s and is currently near 445 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline over 03-05 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 22112211
Cocos Island 3 12111110
Darwin 6 22212212
Townsville 5 22112212
Learmonth 6 22222221
Alice Springs 5 22212211
Gingin 5 22212220
Canberra 4 12112211
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 22112211
Hobart 5 221-----
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
Macquarie Island 8 22133320
Casey 10 34321211
Mawson 15 33323343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 15
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 8 G0
04 Sep 6 G0
05 Sep 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 02-Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 03-05 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 02-Sep were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be generally normal over 03-05 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep 159
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
04 Sep 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
05 Sep 160 15 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Sep were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced. Spread F was observed at Canberra and Hobart during
local night hours. Ionospheric scintillation was observed at
Darwin and Niue over the interval 02/0720-1401UT. MUFs are expected
to be 15-25% enhanced over 03-05 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV:
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background:
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 96400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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