[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 September 24 issued 0032 UT on 02 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Sep 2 10:32:17 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0757UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M5.5 1323UT possible lower European
M1.1 2000UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.5 2249UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 226/176
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 230/180 240/189 245/195
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Sep was at the R2 level
due to an M5.5 long duration flare from behind the southeast
solar limb. Post flare looping was evident in solar imagery following
this flare, implying an associated solar proton event. A new
flare active solar region is rotating onto the solar disk over
the southeast limb at solar latitude S22, with leader spots now
visible on the solar disk. This new region also produced two
of the M1 flare events. Solar region AR3806 (S10E22, beta-gamma-delta)
appears to be now in slow decay, with an overall decline in umbral
area. Solar region AR3807 (S15W26, beta-gamma) continues to grow,
with development in intermediate spots and growth in leader and
trailer spots. This region produced an M1.5 flare toward the
end of the UT day. Other regions are smaller and more magnetically
simple. There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. In GONG H-alpha imagery an optical flare and dark
surging was observed in region AR3807 at 01/0002UT but no CME
appeared to follow this activity. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 level over 02-04 Sep. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions have been observed with a slight enhancement in 10MeV
GOES solar proton flux after 01/1950UT following the long duration
M5 flare. S0, chance S1 conditions are expected for 01-Sep. The
eastern solar limb location of the M5 flare is likely to reduce
any flare enhanced proton flux observed at the Earth's location.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A large fast expansive
southeast directed CME was observed in association with the M5
flare and has been modelled as an Earth miss. The solar wind
speed on UT day 01-Sep was steady and mildly elevated, ranging
from 349 to 434 km/s and is currently near 405 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -7 nT. The solar
wind is expected to be slightly elevated on 02-Sep with a declining
trend. A small isolated coronal hole is visible in the northeast
solar quadrant with centre location at N24E45.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 22222322
Cocos Island 7 32222221
Darwin 8 22222322
Townsville 9 23222322
Learmonth 9 32222322
Alice Springs 8 22222322
Gingin 9 32122332
Canberra 7 22122322
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 22113322
Hobart 8 22112332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Sep :
Macquarie Island 17 33224531
Casey 10 24321222
Mawson 30 45333364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 27 4451 3543
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 8 G0
03 Sep 6 G0
04 Sep 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 01-Sep. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Macquarie Island and isolated periods of G1 and G2 observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 02-04
Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 01-Sep were
mostly normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be generally normal over 02-04 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are
probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 150
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 159
Sep 117
Oct 116
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Sep 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Sep 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 96 was issued on
31 August and is current for 31 Aug to 2 Sep. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 01-Sep
were near predicted monthly values to 60% enhanced. Strong enhancements
were observed during local night hours in the northern Australian
region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 02-04 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 42400 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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