[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 29 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Oct 30 10:31:23 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1633UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 266/217
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 265/216 270/221 270/221
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Oct was R1, with an isolated
M1.1 level solar flare from AR3872 (S13E01, beta). There are
currently nine numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3869
(S13W17, beta-gamma) and AR3876 (S01W18, gamma) have shown steady
growth, AR3874 (N27W29, beta) appears to be maturing, and AR3878
(N16E52, beta) has also shown some growth over the past day.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be R1-R2 with a chance for R3 over 30-31
Oct and 01-Nov.
Coronagraph imagery was limited on 29-Oct. A large prominence
eruption was observed off the southwestern solar limb from 1110 UT.
While there is no coronagraph imagery available, a partial
halo CME may have erupted from this event. Until imagery is
available no analysis can be completed; however, given the
location of the eruption it is not expected it will have a significant
impact to Earth at this stage.
On UT day 29-Oct the 10 MeV protons were initially at S2 solar
radiation storm levels, peaking at 234 pfu. The 10 MeV protons
were on a slow decline throughout the day and are currently at
S1 levels near 80 pfu. S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
to continue on UT day 30-Oct and possibly reach S0 by the end of the day.
Further solar radiation storm activity is possible should 3872
(S13E01, beta) produce any more long duration X-class flares.
The solar wind environment on UT day 29-Oct was mostly near
background levels. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +6 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed was generally near 500
km/s but may be on a gentle decline. The solar wind environment
is expected to be near background levels over 30-31 Oct and 01-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 31212232
Cocos Island 7 31212231
Darwin 9 31212233
Townsville 10 32222233
Learmonth 9 32222232
Alice Springs 8 31212232
Gingin 11 41222242
Canberra 7 31211132
Kennaook Cape Grim 10 32211243
Hobart 9 32211233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
Macquarie Island 11 32322233
Casey 25 55433243
Mawson 29 54434453
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 2432 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 8 G0
31 Oct 6 G0
01 Nov 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Oct. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally
expected over 30-31 Oct and 01-Nov, conditional on coronagraph
imagery becoming available for further analysis of a recent CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal-fair Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 26 10 2024 1850UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were mostly normal
to fair on UT day 29-Oct. Ionospheric TEC and scintillation was
common around equatorial regions. A polar cap absorption (PCA)
event began on 27-Oct and is ongoing, affecting high latitude
regions. HF radio conditions are expected to be similar on 30-Oct,
with PCA easing. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 31-Oct and 01-Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 135 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
31 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
01 Nov 145 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 124 was issued on
28 October and is current for 29-31 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were near predicted values in the Australian region on
UT day 29-Oct, with 15% depressions in the southern regions and
15% enhancements in the northern regions. Sporadic-E was observed
in Brisbane and cocos Islands during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted values to 20% enhanced over
30-31 Oct and 01-Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+09
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 509 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 315000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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