[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 28 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Oct 29 10:31:05 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.8 27/2324UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.3 0409UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 1444UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M4.2 1628UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 255/205
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 265/216 275/227 270/221
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Oct was R1, with several
low-level M-class solar flares. A majority of the solar flares
originated from a new unnamed region near N22E70, however from
1444 UT an M1.2 flare was produced near regions AR386 (S01W05,
beta) and AR3872 (S13E16, beta). Overall there are thirteen sunspots
currently on the disk. AR3876 and AR3872 have grown in the past
day and appear to be the most magnetically complex regions on
the disk. AR3874 (N27W15, beta) has shown some growth over the
past day, however this region has been quiet so far. Despite
the numerous sunspots in the southern solar hemisphere, all other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R1-R2 with a chance for R3 over 29-31 Oct.
A CME to the solar northeast was observed from 28/0953 UT, however
this is not expected to be geoeffective. A CME directed mostly
to the southwest was observed from 28/1423 UT, possibly associated
with filament activity on the southwest limb from 28/1310 UT.
Activity near the group of sunspots near the central meridian
was also noted around this time, and due to lack of coronagraph
imagery it cannot be ruled out whether some plasma emission was
associated with this. Analysis of this event is ongoing. No other
CMEs were observed on this day.
An S2 solar radiation storm was observed on 28-Oct and is ongoing.
The peak 10 MeV proton flux reached 364 pfu. S2 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected to continue on 29-Oct, but are expected
to begin declining. S2-S1 solar radiation storm conditions are
expected over 30-31 Oct.
The solar wind was disturbed on UT day 28-Oct due to the arrival
of the partial halo CME that was first seen on 26-Oct. This CME
arrived at 0413 UT and had a peak total interplanetary field
strength (IF, Bt) of 23 nT. The north-south IMF component range
(Bz) was +18 nT to -19 nT, however no significant periods of
southward Bz were observed. The disturbance was relatively short
lived as the solar wind strength Bt has returned to near 10 nT.
The solar wind speed peaked at 616 km/s and is currently near
500 km/s. The solar wind over 29-31 Oct is expected to be mostly
undisturbed, conditional on ongoing CME analysis.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 24333212
Cocos Island 9 24322211
Darwin 12 25322212
Townsville 17 45333222
Learmonth 14 25333212
Alice Springs 14 25333212
Gingin 16 34334313
Canberra 12 24333222
Kennaook Cape Grim 16 24434322
Hobart 16 24434322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Oct :
Macquarie Island 23 34445422
Casey 65 48754333
Mawson 30 45544344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 53 (Unsettled)
Canberra 64 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2102 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 10 G0
30 Oct 8 G0
31 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Ausralian
region on UT day 28-Oct. G0-G4 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctica region. Mostly G0, with an isolated periods
of G1, planetary geomagnetic conditions were observed. The CME
from 26-Oct arrived from 28/0413 UT, and while the initial impact
was moderate, no significant periods of southward Bz were observed.
For this reason, little geomagnetic activity eventuated.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal-fair Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 26 10 2024 1850UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
30 Oct Normal Normal Fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 28-Oct were
normal to fair in low latitudes, and poor in high latitudes due
to ongoing polar cap absorption (PCA). Scintillation was common
around equatorial regions. Scintillation and PCA are expected
to continue on 29-Oct but conditions are expected to begin to
return to near background levels over 30-31 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct 139
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct 130 Near predicted values to 20% enhanced
30 Oct 135 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
31 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 124 was issued on
28 October and is current for 29-31 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 28-Oct were near predicted values to 30% enhanced.
Sporadic E was observed in Hobart and Norfolk Island during local
night hours. Spread-F was observed in Hobart. Scintillation was
observed at Darwin and Weipa from 1310 to 1820 UT. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values to 20% enhanced over 29-31 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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