[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 October 24 issued 2341 UT on 27 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Oct 28 10:41:58 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.8 2324UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 246/196
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 245/195 245/195 245/195
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Oct was R1 due to an M2.8 flare from
new solar region AR3878 (N16E80, beta-gamma) which has rotated onto the disk
and may be the return of old region AR3848 which produced an R3 event on
its previous transit. The three solar regions that have been recently flare
active AR3869 (S13E12, beta), AR3872 (beta-gamma-delta) and AR3873 (S11E41,
beta)
were mostly stable. The evolution of AR3869 was mixed with minor decline
in the leader and intermediate spots and development in the trailer
spots. Solar region AR3876 (S01E11, beta-gamma) is rapidly growing.
Smaller solar region AR3874 (N27W03, beta) has shown growth in
its trailer spots. Solar regions AR3869, AR3872, AR3874, AR3876 have
produced mid to high range C class flares in the past 24 hours. There
are currently twelve numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
Other sunspot regions are generally stable or in decline. Solar
activity is expected to be R1-R2 over 28-30 Oct, with the chance
of an isolated R3 flare. S2 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed from 26/1850UT following the recent X1.8 flare
and remains in progress with a peak flux of approximately 273PFU
at 27/1535UT. S2 solar radiation conditions are expected for
28-Oct with a slowly declining trend, with S1 conditions possibly
continuing on over 29-30 Oct. No significant Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the past 24 hours. A slow southwest directed
CME was observed from 26/2338UT in STEREOA and a northeast CME
was observed from 27/1530UT in LASCO C3. Neither of these CMEs
could be correlated to on disk activity and are currently presumed
to be far side/limb events. The solar wind environment on UT
day 27-Oct declined following yesterdays weak shock arrival.
The solar wind speed ranged from 400 to 480 km/s and is currently
near 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 21 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was
+17 to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to become enhanced
during the first half of 28-Oct due to a CME glancing blow from
the recent X1.8 flare/CME. The induced activity may be weaker
due to a now more likely later than expected arrival.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 31121222
Cocos Island 6 31011232
Darwin 6 31121222
Townsville 7 3212122-
Learmonth 9 32121233
Alice Springs 7 32121222
Gingin 10 32122333
Canberra 7 31022322
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 31122322
Hobart 9 31132322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
Macquarie Island 15 22144432
Casey 36 56643333
Mawson 30 53334554
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 1000 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 30 G1, chance G2
29 Oct 15 G0
30 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 72 was issued on 26 October
and is current for 27-28 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian on UT day 27-Oct. G0-G2 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. The arrival of a CME glancing
blow initially expected from late 27-Oct to early 28-Oct in association
with the recent X1.8 flare has yet to eventuate suggesting that
the induced geomagnetic activity is now likely to be weaker/later
than originally forecast.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 26 10 2024 1850UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
29 Oct Normal Fair Poor-fair
30 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 27-Oct were
normal for low and middle latitudes. High latitudes were impacted
by increased absorption from an S2 solar radiation storm. Antarctic
riometers observed an increase in absorption of approximately
2db on 27-Oct. Degraded HF conditions expected on 28-Oct for
middle latitudes due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from
a CME arrival are likely to be weaker and possibly now occurring
on 29-Oct. Shortwave fadeouts probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased ionospheric
absorption observed at Mawson and Casey.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
29 Oct 100 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 122 was issued on
26 October and is current for 26-28 Oct. ASWFC Preliminary HF
Communications Warning 123 was issued on 27 October and is current
for 28 Oct only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 27-Oct were 15% depressed to near predicted
values during the local day and 25% enhanced after local dawn.
Anticipated geomagnetic activity from a CME arrival has yet to
eventuate and MUFs are now expected to be near normal to 20%
enhanced on 28-Oct. MUFs may become 15% depressed in the southern
Australian region late 28/29-Oct if geomagnetic activity from
a glancing blow CME eventuates. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 79500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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