[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 30 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Oct 31 10:31:41 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.2 2053UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 270/221
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 270/221 270/221 260/210
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Oct was R2 due to an M7.2
flare from solar region AR3878 (N16E41, beta-gamma-delta). This
region exhibited minor development in its intermediate spots
in the past 24 hours. Other solar regions of note AR3869 (S13W28,
beta), AR3872 ( S13W10, beta), AR3876 (S01W30, beta) were largely
stable. Minor penumbral decay was observed in AR3876 and AR3869.
Solar region AR3876 produced C class flare activity. Smaller
solar region AR3875 (N29W29, beta) is growing. There are currently
ten numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be R1-R2 with a chance for an isolated R3 event over 31-Oct
to 02-Nov. The recent S2 solar radiation event is in slow decline
and is currently at the S1 level. Solar radiation conditions
are expected to be S1 for today then declining to S0. No significantly
Earth directed CMEs have been observed. No CME appeared to be
associated with the M7.2 flare. A southward out of the ecliptic
plane CME was observed in LASCO C2 from 30/0538UT which could
not be correlated to on disk activity. Modelling of the southwest
limb prominence eruption on 29-Oct will be conducted if LASCO
imagery becomes available, but is expected to pass ahead of the
Earth. The solar wind environment on UT day 30-Oct was mildly
enhanced. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was
+6 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed ranged from 485 to 560 km/s
and is currently near 530km/s. Two small coronal holes are visible
on the solar disk. An isolated coronal hole is starting to cross
the solar central meridian centred at N35E05. Another coronal
hole is just to the east of the solar central meridian centred
at N05E10. The solar wind speed may decrease then slightly increase
over 02-03 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 23332222
Cocos Island 9 23332211
Darwin 9 23332212
Townsville 11 33332222
Learmonth 10 33332212
Alice Springs 9 23332212
Gingin 11 33332222
Canberra 9 23322222
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 -3332322
Hobart 10 23332222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct :
Macquarie Island 16 23345222
Casey 34 55644333
Mawson 30 53554343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3121 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 10 G0
01 Nov 5 G0
02 Nov 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Oct. A mild increase in geomagnetic activity
was observed on 30-Oct. Periods of G1-G2 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 31-Oct to 02-Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Fair-normal Poor-Fair(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 26/1850UT and is in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair(PCA)
01 Nov Normal Normal Fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were mostly fair to
normal on UT day 30-Oct. A polar cap absorption (PCA) event that
began on 27-Oct and is ongoing, affecting high latitude regions,
though is declining with observed riometer absorption of 1dB
at Casey and Davis. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly fair to normal on 31-Oct and normal over 01-02 Nov
for low to middle latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced at Darwin.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed
at Casey and Davis of approximately 1dB as event declines.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct 100 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced
01 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
02 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 124 was issued on
28 October and is current for 29-31 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were generally near predicted values in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Oct, with 15% depressions in the southern
Australian region. Sporadic-E was observed during local night
hours at several sites. Ionospheric absorption in the Antarctic
region has reduced as the solar proton flux declines. A fadeout
was observed at Niue 30/2035-2125UT only impacting lower HF frequencies
in association with the M7 flare. For 31-Oct MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced for the northern
Australian region. Southern Australian region MUFs have been
15% depressed after local dawn this morning. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced for 01-02
Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 487 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 202000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list