[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 24 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Oct 25 10:31:30 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X3.3 0357UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 1030UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 197/149
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 200/152 205/156
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Oct was R3, with a long
duration X3 level solar flare that peaked at 0357 UT. The flare
originated from a cluster of sunspots on the eastern limb that
are coming into view, likely from ex-region AR3842 that had a
history of producing X-class flares. There are currently nine
numbered sunspots on the solar disk, although the regions on
the eastern limb are dominating in size and complexity. While
these regions do not appear to be growing, due to limb foreshortening
analysis of their growth is restricted. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or decay. Solar activity is expected to be
generally R1-R2 with a chance for R3 over 25-27 Oct.
A wide partial halo CME was associated with the X3 solar flare.
While the bulk of the ejected material is directed behind the
Earth's orbit, a glancing blow from this CME is expected on 26-Oct.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 24-Oct.
The chance of S1 solar radiation storm activity may increase over
25-27 Oct as sunspot regions AR3871 (S09E48, beta), AR3872 (S13E59,
beta) and AR3873 (S14E70, beta) continue rotating towards the
central meridian, however this is conditional on any flare activity.
The solar wind environment on UT day was generally near background
levels. The solar wind speed was on a decline and ranged from
400 to near 330 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +3 to -8 nT. There was a period of southward oriented Bz
from 0030 until 0550 UT. The solar wind is expected to be near
background levels on 25-Oct, before becoming disturbed on 26-Oct.
On 26-Oct a CME that was first seen on 23-Oct is expected to
have a weak glancing blow; the CME associated with the R3 flare
is expected to having a glancing blow, and Earth is also expected
to connect to a small equatorial coronal hole on this day, or
possibly by 25-Oct. Disturbed conditions will likely continue
into 27-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 23211212
Cocos Island 3 12110210
Darwin 6 23211212
Townsville 10 34211322
Learmonth 7 23211312
Alice Springs 6 23211212
Gingin 6 22210312
Canberra 5 13210211
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 23211212
Hobart 6 23310211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
Macquarie Island 7 14321200
Casey 11 34421211
Mawson 30 46632233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1213 3121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 8 G0
26 Oct 30 G2-G3
27 Oct 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Oct. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 25-Oct. G2, with a chance of G3 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 26-Oct from the arrival of the CME associated with
the R3 flare, currently expected from 1500 UT on this day +/- 10 hours.
Disturbed conditions will likely continue into 27-Oct before background
conditions resume.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal
26 Oct Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
27 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 24-Oct were
mostly normal. Equatorial scintillation was common around midnight-dawn
hours. A shortwave fadeout affected the Australian and southeast
Asian regions from 0357 UT. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be normal on 25-Oct, but become degraded over
26-27 Oct due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct 139
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct 145 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
26 Oct 110 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
27 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 120 was issued on
24 October and is current for 24-25 Oct. ASWFC Preliminary HF
Communications Warning 121 was issued on 24 October and is current
for 26-27 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Oct were near predicted values to 15% enhanced.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 20% enhanced
on 25-Oct. MUFs may become 10-15% depressed over 26-27 Oct due
to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Spread-F and sporadic-E
may be common during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 50300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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