[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 23 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Oct 24 10:31:46 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 185/138
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 190/143 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Oct was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently 11 numbered sunspots on the
solar disk,however a majority are small and magnetically simple.
AR3866 (S11E34, beta) has grown over the past day. All other
numbered sunspots are either stable or in decay. A potentially
complex region is rotating on and has yet to be numbered. Solar
activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 24-26 Oct.
A CME directed to the north was observed from 23/1248 UT. This
may possibly be associated with a filament eruption and C-class
flare from AR3863 (S06E05, beta) that began from 23/1140 UT, and
may have a weak glancing blow late on 26-Oct, but this is low confidence.
No other significant CMEs were observed on UT day 23-Oct.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 23-Oct.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 24-26 Oct.
The solar wind environment on UT day 23-Oct was mildly perturbed.
The solar wind speed increased from near 300 to near 400-450
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +7
to -8 nT. It is possible that Earth has now connected with the
small equatorial coronal hole, and the solar wind speed may continue
to be enhanced on 24-Oct, possibly into 25-Oct. Further enhancements
are likely by 26-Oct due to another small equatorial coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22132012
Cocos Island 4 22222010
Darwin 7 32132012
Townsville 7 3213300-
Learmonth 7 32222022
Alice Springs 6 22132012
Gingin 6 22122023
Canberra 5 22122022
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 22233022
Hobart 8 22233022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Oct :
Macquarie Island 10 22144021
Casey 14 44333122
Mawson 14 33333241
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1222 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 8 G0
25 Oct 8 G0
26 Oct 16 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 23-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are generally expected over 24-26 Oct, with G1 conditions possible
on 26-Oct due to a small coronal hole and possible weak glancing
blow from a CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
on UT day 23-Oct. Equatorial scintillation was common during
local midnight-dawn hours. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be generally normal over 24-26 Oct, with some
degradations at high latitudes over 25-26 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
25 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
26 Oct 130 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day were near predicted values to 15% enhanced.
Spread-F was observed in Darwin during local dawn hours. Scintillation
was observed in Weipa from 23/1330-1350 UT. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values to 20% enhanced over 24-26 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 22200 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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