[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 22 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Oct 23 10:31:44 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Oct was R0, with no solar
flares. There are currently nine solar regions on the visible
solar disk and all are currently relatively small and magnetically
simple and are either stable or in decline. Solar regions AR3860
(S07W55, beta) and AR3867 (S22E35, beta) each produced an isolated
C class flare. A small solar filament located at N10W00 erupted
during the interval 22/0447-0528UT. Plasma ejecta was observed
off the southeast solar limb from 22/1709UT in SDO/SUVI imagery.
Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 23-Oct, and increasing
to R1, chance R2 on 24-25 Oct. Solar flare activity may increase
in coming days due to the anticipated return of previously flare
active solar regions. GONG far side imagery shows evidence of
returning regions just behind the southeast solar limb. A new
spot has rotated onto the solar disk at S15E80, which may be
a leader spot. No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day
22-Oct in available STEREOA coronagraph imagery. A narrow west
directed CME was visible from 22/1953UT but could not be correlated
to on disk activity. No LASCO C2/C3 imagery was available. No
CME appeared associated with the small filament eruption but
coronagraph imagery was very limited. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions were observed on UT day 22-Oct. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 23-25 Oct. The solar wind
environment on UT day 22-Oct was steady and at background levels.
The solar wind speed ranged from near 288 to 328 km/s and is
currently at 310 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was -1 to -7 nT. The IMF Bz component of the solar wind was orientated
mildly southward for most of the UT day. The anticipated mild
enhancement in solar wind speed from an earlier coronal hole
has so far failed to eventuate. An isolated equatorial coronal
hole is crossing the solar central meridian and may moderately
elevate solar wind speed over 26-27 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 11222222
Cocos Island 5 11222211
Darwin 5 11221212
Townsville 6 11222222
Learmonth 8 12232312
Alice Springs 5 11222212
Gingin 6 21222222
Canberra 7 11232222
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 11232222
Hobart 8 11232322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
Macquarie Island 16 12444422
Casey 8 13322122
Mawson 13 33223333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0011 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 10 G0
24 Oct 8 G0
25 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 22-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 23-25 Oct. The mild increase in geomagnetic
activity expected for 22-Oct failed to eventuate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 22-Oct were
normal, with some degradations at high latitudes. HF radio communication
conditions are expected to be normal over 23-25 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct 151
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
24 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
25 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Oct were near predicted values to 20% enhanced.
Mild spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced
for 23-25 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 30100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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