[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 21 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Oct 22 10:31:41 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Oct was R0, with no solar
flares. The two largest medium sized regions are AR3859 (S12W51,
beta) and AR3863 (S06E34, beta). Region AR3863 showed intermediate
spot development. There are currently eleven numbered sunspots
on the disk, with no region currently exhibiting significant
magnetic complexity and all are small to medium in size. Solar
activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 22-24 Oct. However, previously
flare active (R3) solar region AR3842 is due back to the southeast
limb (S15) on 23-Oct. Also, two R1 flare producing regions are
possibly also due back to the northeast (N13) and southeast (S14)
limbs on 22-Oct. Some plasma motion was evident in SDO/SUVI imagery
from 21/1020UT on the southeast solar limb at solar latitude
S10-S15. No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 21-Oct
in available STEREOA imagery, with a behind the limb southeast
directed CME visible from 21/1023UT. No LASCO imagery was available.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 21-Oct.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 22-24 Oct.
The solar wind environment on UT day 21-Oct declined to background
levels. The solar wind speed ranged from near 321 to 367 km/s
and is currently at 320 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +6 to -3 nT. A mild enhancement of the solar wind
may occur over 22-23 Oct due to a coronal hole. An isolated equatorial
coronal hole is also approaching the solar central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11111211
Cocos Island 3 11110211
Darwin 3 11111201
Townsville 4 21111212
Learmonth 5 11121312
Alice Springs 3 11111202
Gingin 3 11110212
Canberra 3 11110211
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 01111211
Hobart 3 11110211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 00110200
Casey 13 43430123
Mawson 16 22220255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2221 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 15 G0, chance G1
23 Oct 10 G0
24 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
on UT day 21-Oct. Generally G0 conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region with an isolated period of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are generally expected over 22-24 Oct, with a chance
of G1 on 22-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Fair
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 21-Oct were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal over 22-24 Oct, with some degradations at high
latitudes on 22-Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct 156
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
23 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
24 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 21-Oct were near predicted values to 25% enhanced.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced.
Mildly degraded conditions may be experienced local night hours
on 22-Oct for the southern Australian region only.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 40400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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