[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 20 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Oct 21 10:31:11 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Oct was R0, with no solar
flares. There are currently nine numbered sunspots on the disk.
AR3859 (S12W40, beta) has undergone some slight changes and AR3863
(S06E41, beta) has grown some trailer spots, but both regions
have remained quiet. All other sunspots are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 21-23 Oct.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 20-Oct in available
imagery.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on
UT day 20-Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 21-23 Oct.
The solar wind environment on UT day 20-Oct declined
to background levels. The solar wind speed ranged from near 450
to 370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was
+4 to -3 nT. A small coronal hole may enhance the solar wind
environment by either late 21-Oct or on 22-Oct, and possibly
carry into 23-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 31111011
Cocos Island 2 21211000
Darwin 3 31101011
Townsville 4 32111011
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 3 31101001
Gingin 3 31101011
Canberra 2 21110011
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 22211001
Hobart 3 22210011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 22120010
Casey 9 43321012
Mawson 12 43323113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 76 (Active)
Canberra 57 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22 4443 4354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 8 G0
22 Oct 15 G0-G1
23 Oct 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 20-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 21-23 Oct, with a chance of G1 on 22-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
22 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 20-Oct were
generally normal with some degradations at high latitudes. Equatorial
scintillation was common. HF radio communication conditions are
expected to be generally normal over 21-23 Oct, with some degradations
at high latitudes on 22-Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct 135 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
22 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
23 Oct 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Oct were mostly near predicted values, with
15% depressions during early local day and 20% enhanced during
local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values on
21 and 22 Oct, with possible 15% enhancements. Depressions up
to 15% are possible by 23-Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 71400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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