[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 19 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Oct 20 10:31:08 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.7 18/2329UT possible lower West Pacific
M6.5 0656UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M1.7 1434UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Oct was R2, with three M-class
flares from AR3854 (S04W84, beta). The largest flare was M6.4
at 0657 UT. This region is due to rotate off the western solar
limb today. There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions
on the disk. AR2859 (S12W27, beta) underwent some minor growth
over the past day, but otherwise all other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1,
with a chance of R2 on 20-Oct or until AR3854 is out of sight.
Several CMEs were observed on UT day 19-Oct, but none are considered
to be Earth directed.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 19-Oct.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 20-22 Oct.
The solar wind environment was mildly disturbed on UT day 19-Oct,
likely due to a small coronal hole. The solar wind speed ranged
from 373 to 488 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component range
(Bz) was +9 to -9 nT. The IMF Bz was intermittently oriented southward
for most of the day. The solar wind is expected to begin returning to
background levels on 20-Oct, but may begin to increase again either
late 21-Oct or on 22-Oct due to another small coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 13 33333232
Cocos Island 8 33222122
Darwin 12 33333132
Townsville 13 33333232
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 12 33333132
Gingin 13 33323233
Canberra 13 33333232
Kennaook Cape Grim 15 33433133
Hobart 17 34433233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
Macquarie Island 36 34754332
Casey 23 45533233
Mawson 47 56533274
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 11 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3201 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 10 G0, slight chance G1
21 Oct 8 G0
22 Oct 12 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 19-Oct. G0-G3 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctica region. A period of planetary G1 was observed
due to coronal hole activity. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 20-22 Oct, with a chance for G1 on 20-Oct as
the effects of a small coronal hole wane, and then again by 22
Oct as a new one becomes geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 19-Oct was
generally normal. Equatorial scintillation was observed over
central America. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to be mostly normal, with some degradations at high latitudes.
Equatorial scintillation is possible. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
21 Oct 135 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
22 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 119 was issued on
18 October and is current for 19-20 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 19-Oct were near predicted values to 15% enhanced
in the Australian region. Ionospheric conditions were generally
good on 19-Oct. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values
to 20% enhanced over 20-22 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 49900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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