[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 October 24 issued 2330 UT on 18 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Oct 19 10:31:00 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1736UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M4.9 1938UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 170/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Oct was R1, with an M1 and
M4 solar flare from AR3854 (S04W68, beta). There are currently
eight numbered sunspots on the disk. AR3859 (S12W12, beta) has
shown some minor growth over the past day, but otherwise all
other sunspots are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R0-R1 with a chance for R2 over 19-21 Oct.
A slow CME was observed to the solar northwest that can be seen
from 1224 UT, but is not expected to be geoeffective. No other
CMEs were observed on UT day 18-Oct.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day
18-Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 19-21 Oct.
The solar wind environment was mildly enhanced on UT day 18-Oct,
likely due to a small coronal hole. The solar wind speed
ranged from 324 to 437 km/s and is currently near
400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component range
(Bz) was +9 to -11 nT. The solar wind environment is expected
to remain mildly enhanced on 19-Oct before returning to near
background levels over 20-21 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 22013233
Cocos Island 6 22112222
Darwin 5 22002222
Townsville 8 22013233
Learmonth 7 320132--
Alice Springs 7 22013223
Gingin 8 32013223
Canberra 8 22013233
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 22123233
Hobart 10 23113233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Oct :
Macquarie Island 14 23034432
Casey 16 35332223
Mawson 23 35323435
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2320 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 10 G0, chance G1
20 Oct 6 G0
21 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 18-Oct. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 19-21 Oct, with a slight chance of G1 on 19-Oct
due to a small coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal,
with some mild degradations at high latitudes. HF radio conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 19-21 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct 150
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct 150 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
20 Oct 150 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
21 Oct 155 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 119 was issued on
18 October and is current for 19-20 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 18-Oct were near predicted
values to 20% enhanced. Conditions were generally normal. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted values to 20% enhanced over
19-21 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 72100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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