[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 17 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Oct 18 10:31:36 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0223UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.4 0505UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 174/128
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Oct was at the R1 level
due to two M class flares. Solar region AR3856 ( N14W15, beta-gamma-delta
) produced the M1 flare and AR3852 ( S10W64, alpha ) produced
the M2.4 flare. Solar region AR3856 continues to grow and AR3852
is in slow decline. The leader spot of region AR3854 ( S04W55,
beta) has split in two with a spot growing north of the now separated
leader spot, this region may have started to decay. Region AR3860
( S07E19, beta-gamma ) is rapidly growing. AR3859 ( S12W00, beta
) and AR3857 ( S04E30, beta-gamma ) are also growing. There are
currently eight numbered active regions visible on the solar
disk. All other active regions are either stable or in decay.
A 15 degree long solar filament with centre located at N35E20
erupted at 17/0729UT in SDO304 imagery. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1, chance R2 level over 18-20 Oct. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on 17-Oct. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 18-20 Oct. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed on 17-Oct in available coronagraph imagery.
A large far side full halo CME was observed from 16/2353UT. A
narrow northeast directed CME was observed from 17/0753UT in
association with the filament eruption. This CME has been modelled
as an Earth miss, with only a very slight chance of grazing the
Earth at 21/0300UT +/- 12 hrs. The solar wind speed on UT day
17-Oct decreased, ranging from 363 to 450 km/s and is currently
near 376 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -6 nT. The IMF Bz component was mildly southward early
in the UT day. A moderate increase in solar wind speed from a
coronal hole now located in the northwest solar quadrant is likely
from mid 18-Oct to 19-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22200122
Cocos Island 3 22101120
Darwin 4 22101112
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 5 22211122
Alice Springs 4 22100122
Gingin 3 22100121
Canberra 4 22200122
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 22200122
Hobart 4 22200122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 32200110
Casey 17 45432121
Mawson 24 34422264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 2243 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 14 Initially G0, then G0-G1 later in day
19 Oct 16 G0, possible G1 periods
20 Oct 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 17-Oct. Generally G0 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated G1 period at Casey.
G0 conditions are initially expected on 18-Oct with an increase
to G0-G1 conditions later in the day due to a coronal hole wind
stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 17-Oct were
fair to normal, with mildly degraded HF conditions at middle
to high latitudes during local night hours. Mildly degraded HF
conditions are possible 18-19 Oct for middle to high latitudes.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
19 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
20 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 118 was issued on
16 October and is current for 16-18 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on 17-Oct were generally near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. Spread F was observed
during local night hours at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over the 18-20 Oct.
Brief minor shortwave fadeouts were observed 17/0220-0228UT and
17/0501-0514UT. Equatorial scintillation was observed at Darwin
17/1352-1410UT. A mild degradation in HF conditions may be experienced
18-19 Oct for the southern Australian region during local night
hours. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 96200 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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