[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 16 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Oct 17 10:31:37 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.0 0319UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.7 0346UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.8 0515UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.5 1327UT possible lower European
M1.3 1442UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.3 1500UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Oct was at the R1 level
due to six M class flares. Solar region AR3852 ( S10W50, alpha
) produced four M class flares including the two M3 flares. Solar
region AR3854 ( S04W43, beta-gamma-delta ) produced two M1 flares.
These two regions appeared relatively stable with possible slight
decay in surrounding small spots. Recently emerging solar region
AR3856 ( N17E02, beta ) has shown rapid development in the past
24 hours. There are currently seven numbered active regions visible
on the solar disk. All other active regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1, chance R2
level over 17-19 Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were
observed on 16-Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 17-19 Oct. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed on
16-Oct in available coronagraph imagery. None of todays flares
had associated CMEs. The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Oct exhibited
a slight increasing trend during the second half of the UT day,
ranging from 368 to 494 km/s and is currently near 440 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -8
nT. The IMF Bz component was frequently mildly southward throughout
the UT day. A isolated coronal hole is visible west of the solar
central meridian with centre located at N30W25. A moderate increase
in solar wind speed from this coronal hole is likely from mid
18-Oct to 19-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 22223322
Cocos Island 7 22222321
Darwin 10 33223222
Townsville 9 23223222
Learmonth 14 33333323
Alice Springs 9 22223322
Gingin 13 32333323
Canberra 9 22223223
Kennaook Cape Grim 10 22323322
Hobart 10 22323322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
Macquarie Island 21 23544431
Casey 19 45442222
Mawson 34 43442565
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 2233 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 10 G0
18 Oct 14 Initially G0, then G0-G1
19 Oct 16 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Oct. G1 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 17-Oct. G0
conditions are initially expected on 18-Oct with an increase
to G0-G1 conditions later in the day due to a coronal hole wind
stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 16-Oct were
fair to normal, with mildly degraded HF conditions at middle
to high latitudes during local night hours. Mostly normal HF
conditions are expected over 17-Oct, with mildly degraded conditions
18-19 Oct for middle to high latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
15% depressed during local day at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
18 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
19 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 118 was issued on
16 October and is current for 16-18 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on 16-Oct were generally near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. Mildly (15%) depressed
conditions were observed during the local day at Hobart. Spread
F was observed during local night hours at Hobart. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over the
17-19 Oct. A mild degradation in HF conditions may be experienced
18-10 Oct for the southern Australian region during local night
hours. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 85100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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