[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 15 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Oct 16 10:31:20 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 0213UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 1006UT possible lower European
M1.7 1818UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Oct was at the R1 level
due to an M1.9 flare at 15/0213UT, an M1.3 flare at 15/1006UT,
an M1.8 flare at 15/1817UT and an M2.1 flare at 15/1833UT. There
are currently eight numbered active regions visible on the solar
disk. AR3852 (S10W38, beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for most
of the M-class flares in the UT day, with the recently rotated
off AR3848 (N15W90) producing the M1.8 flare at 15/1817UT. AR3854
(S03W31, beta) and AR3856 (N17E14, gamma) both displayed spot
development over the UT day. All other active regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 16-18 Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were
observed on 15-Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 16-18 Oct. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed on
15-Oct in available imagery. A southeast directed CME is visible
in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 15/0400UT. This event is associated
with coronal movement off the southeastern limb visible in SDO
and GOES SUVI imagery from 15/0020UT. This CME is not considered
geoeffective. An eruption on the disk is visible from 15/1833UT
at around S05W30 in GOES SUVI and SDO imagery. This event is
associated with the M2.1 flare at 15/1833UT. No associated CME
is visible in currently available coronagraph imagery. Further
analysis will be performed when more imagery becomes available.
The solar wind speed on UT day 14-Oct exhibited a declining trend,
ranging from 360 to 460 km/s and is currently near 410 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -7
nT. A slight increase in solar wind speed is possible on 16-Oct
due to high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole in
the southern hemisphere in a geoeffective position and a possible
glancing CME impact. The solar wind speed is expected to be near
background levels on 17-18 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 22323323
Cocos Island 7 12222321
Darwin 12 32323323
Townsville 11 22323323
Learmonth 12 31323333
Alice Springs 11 22323323
Gingin 11 31323323
Canberra 10 12323323
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 22433322
Hobart 13 22433323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
Macquarie Island 20 22544432
Casey 20 45423323
Mawson 19 33333541
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1111 2133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 16 G0, chance of G1
17 Oct 10 G0
18 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Oct. G1 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 16-Oct, with
a chance of G1 conditions due to currently elevated IMF conditions
and a possible glancing CME impact on 16-Oct. G0 conditions are
expected on 17-18 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 15-Oct were
mostly normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
16-18 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct 152
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct 155 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
17 Oct 155 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
18 Oct 155 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the northern Australian
region were near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 30%,
MUFs in the southern Australian region were enhanced by 20%.
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
over the 16-18 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 47900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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