[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 14 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Oct 15 10:31:35 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.4 0018UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.8 1337UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 182/135
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Oct was at the R1 level
due to an M3.4 flare at 14/0018UT and an M1.8 flare at 14/1337.
There are currently eight numbered active regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3848 (N10W89, beta) was responsible for both
R1 flare events on 14-Oct, however this region appears stable
and is expected to rotate off the solar disk on 15-Oct. AR3852
(S10W25, beta) and AR3855 (N14W45, beta) showed spot development
over the UT day, but both are currently magnetically simple and
flare quiet. All other active regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over
15-Oct and at the R0 level, with a chance of R1 on 16-17 Oct.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 14-Oct.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 15-17 Oct.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A pair of northwest
directed CMEs are visible from 14/0048UT and 14/1436UT in SOHO
and STEREO-A imagery. These CMEs are associated with the M-class
flares on 14-Oct and both are associated with coronal movement
behind the western limb. Both of these CMEs are not considered
geoeffective. A west directed CME is visible from 14/0942UT in
SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. This CME is associated with a filament
lift off visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from 14/0840UT
at around S25 on the western limb. Modelling indicates this CME
is not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 14-Oct exhibited
a declining trend, ranging from 375 to 460 km/s and is currently
near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -7 nT. A minor shock was observed in the IMF at 14/1719UT
followed by predominantly -Bz conditions from 14/2005UT. This
is indicative of a minor CME impact. A slight increase in solar
wind speed is possible on 15-16 Oct due to high speed wind stream
effects from a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere in a geoeffective
position and a possible glancing CME impact. The solar wind speed
is expected to be near background levels on 17-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 11101223
Cocos Island 4 10101232
Darwin 5 21101223
Townsville 7 21201233
Learmonth 5 21101223
Alice Springs 4 10101223
Gingin 4 10101223
Canberra 4 10101123
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 11201112
Hobart 4 11201113
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 11201022
Casey 8 23311222
Mawson 12 12311235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1001 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 16 G0, chance of G1
16 Oct 16 G0, chance of G1
17 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Oct. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 15-16 Oct, with a slight
chance of G1 conditions due to a recent CME impact, possible
high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole in the southern
hemisphere and a possible glancing CME impact on 16-Oct. G0 conditions
are expected on 17-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 14-Oct were
normal for low to middle latitudes. High latitude conditions
were fair-normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
15-17 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct 147
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Oct 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Oct 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Oct were near predicted monthly values to
enhanced by up to 25%, with the strongest enhancements observed
in the southern Australian region and during local night. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over the 15-17 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 71700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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