[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 13 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Oct 14 10:31:19 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 195/147
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 200/152 200/152
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Oct was at the R0 level.
Solar region AR3848 (N13W77, beta) produced isolated C class
flares, with minor flare activity from a narrow penumbral extension
to the north of its main spot. Solar region AR3849 (S06W50, beta)
produced a single C class flare. Solar region AR3854 (S04W02,
beta) exhibited decline in its intermediate spots and the surrounding
spots of AR3852 (S10W10, beta) have reduced. There are currently
seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 level over 14-16 Oct. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 14-16 Oct. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. A far side northwest CME was observed
from 13/0136UT and southward far side CMEs were observed from
13/0248UT and from 13/0423UT. The solar wind speed on UT day
13-Oct exhibited a declining trend, ranging from 430 to 560 km/s
and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +2 to -3 nT. An isolated coronal hole is visible
in the northeast solar quadrant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 10021111
Cocos Island 2 00021110
Darwin 3 11021112
Townsville 3 11021121
Learmonth 3 11021111
Alice Springs 3 10021112
Gingin 3 10021211
Canberra 1 10011011
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 00011111
Hobart 1 00011111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 00013111
Casey 9 32331222
Mawson 13 21133153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 16 3124 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 9 G0
15 Oct 8 G0
16 Oct 14 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Oct. In the Antarctic region mostly G0 conditions
were observed, with an isolated period of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected 14-15 Oct, with a slight chance of G1
conditions on 16-Oct due to 27-day recurrence and a possible
very mild CME influence.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 13-Oct were
normal for low to middle latitudes. High latitude conditions
were fair. Normal HF conditions are expected over 14-16 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35-40%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
15 Oct 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
16 Oct 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Oct were depressed 15% during the local day
for the southern Australian region. Northern Australian region
MUFs were near normal to 15% enhanced. Mild spread F was observed
during local night hours at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over the 14-16 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 572 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 135000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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