[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 12 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Oct 13 10:31:29 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: R0
Flares: none
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 214/165
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 210/161 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Oct was at the R0 level.
A long duration C9.7 flare from behind the southwestern solar
limb was observed late in the UT day yesterday at 11/2320UT possibly
from now off disk AR3842. Solar region AR3848 (N13W63, beta)
has grown in penumbral area with small spot development in a
penumbral extension north of main large leader spot, but currently
exhibits reduced magnetic complexity. This region produced several
C class flares over the past 24 hours. Other regions of note
AR3852( S10E04, beta) and AR3854 (S04E11, beta) have also grown
but are now also more magnetically simple. Solar region AR3852
produced an isolated C class flare. Solar region AR3849 (S06W36,
beta) intermediate spot has grown. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Two very small unnumbered
regions are located at S11E06 and S05E13. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Breaking plasma arches were visible
on the southwest solar limb at solar latitude S20 from 12/1037UT
in SDO193 imagery. Solar activity is expected to be at R1, chance
R2 levels over 13-15 Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 13-15 Oct. No Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. A southwest CME was observed from 12/1136UT. This is
considered a behind the western solar limb event and has been
modelled to pass well ahead of the Earth. The solar wind speed
on UT day 12-Oct exhibited an overall declining trend, ranging
from 504 to 702 km/s and is currently near 550 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -6 nT. The IMF
Bz component was orientated mildly southward during the interval
12/0822-1010UT. Two coronal holes located at high northern and
southern solar latitudes west 35-45 degrees of the solar central
meridian may slightly sustain the solar wind speed today. Another
isolated coronal hole is visible in the northeast solar quadrant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: G1
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 19 42354322
Cocos Island 15 32344322
Darwin 16 42344322
Townsville 21 42355322
Learmonth 24 52355322
Alice Springs 20 32355322
Gingin 17 42344332
Canberra 15 32344322
Kennaook Cape Grim 17 32354322
Hobart 17 32354322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
Macquarie Island 21 32355332
Casey 26 44554233
Mawson 39 33365365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 68
Planetary 112 8887 7434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 12 G0
14 Oct 10 G0
15 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 68 was issued on 11 October
and is current for 11-13 Oct. G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 12-Oct. G1-G2 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. The mild activity is probably
a combination of declining CME influence and weak coronal hole
wind streams. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 13-15 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : None.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 12-Oct were
normal for low to middle latitudes. High latitude conditions
were initially degraded early in the UT day then improving. Fair
to normal HF conditions are expected over 13-15 Oct. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct 146
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-40%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Southern Australian Region:
Initially enhanced 25% then near predicted monthly values.
15% depressed to near predicted monthly values after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct 115 15% depressed southern Aus. region and 15% enhanced
northern Aus. region.
14 Oct 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
15 Oct 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Oct were near predicted monthly values to
25% enhanced. Spread F was observed during local night hours
at Hobart. Hobart and Canberra MUFs were mildly depressed after
local dawn. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over the 13-15 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 665 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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