[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 11 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Oct 12 10:31:58 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1605UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.1 1633UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 214/165
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 215/165 212/163
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Oct was at the R1 level
due to two low level M-class flares. Solar region AR3854 (S04E26,
beta) produced both of the minor M-class flares. Solar region
AR3848 (N13W48, beta-gamma-delta) is currently the largest and
most magnetically complex region on the solar disk but has been
flare quiet. Solar region AR3849 (S06W21, beta-gamma) and AR3852
(S10E19, beta-gamma) produced C class flares. Solar region AR3854
and AR3852 are growing. Solar region AR3848 has shown some penumbral
development around its main large spot and the leader spots of
AR3849 have shown minor development. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 12-14 Oct. The recent
solar radiation storm which peaked at S3 has ended and S0 solar
radiation storm conditions are expected over 12-14 Oct. Localised
on disk diming was observed in SDO193 at 11/1618-1627UT to the
northeast and southeast of AR3854, and is considered to be in
association with the M class flare activity. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. An very slow east directed CME was observed
from 11/1748UT in LASCO C2. This event is assumed to be associated
with the on disk dimming observed from 11/1618UT. Event modelling
shows this influence of this slow east directed event to be insignificant.
A narrow non Earth directed CME was observed off the northwest
limb from 11/1224UT. The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Oct was
variable with an overall declining trend, ranging from 570 to
790 km/s and is currently near 630 km/s. The solar wind parameters
were initially enhanced early in the UT day as effects of the
recent CME passage decline. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 28 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -37 nT. The IMF Bz component was orientated
strongly southward during the interval 11/0000-0900UT. The strength
of the CME enhanced interplanetary magnetic field has now greatly
reduced. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually decline
as the influence of the recent CME transit declines, however
two coronal holes located at high northern and southern solar
latitudes west 20-30 degrees of the solar central meridian may
slightly sustain the solar wind speed over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: G3
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 53 64675423
Cocos Island 25 54454322
Darwin 36 54565323
Townsville 55 64675434
Learmonth 49 64575423
Alice Springs 47 64575323
Gingin 50 63675422
Canberra 75 65785333
Kennaook Cape Grim 111 76796423
Hobart 111 76796423
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
Macquarie Island 98 67787432
Casey 29 54554323
Mawson 53 55674444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 15 (Quiet)
Learmonth 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 18 (Quiet)
Gingin 77 (Active)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 70
Planetary 128
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 50
Planetary 155 2211 3999
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 26 G0-G1
13 Oct 12 G0
14 Oct 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 68 was issued on 11 October
and is current for 11-13 Oct. G3 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 11-Oct. Isolated
periods of G4 were observed at Canberra, and isolated periods
of G5 were observed at Kennaook Cape Grim and Hobart. G3-G4 geomagnetic
conditions were observed at Macquarie Island, G1-G3 periods were
observed at Mawson and G1 conditions were observed at Casey during
the first half of the UT day. Planetary G4 conditions were observed
11/00-09UT and planetary G3 conditions were observed 11/09-15UT.
The geomagnetic storm activity induced by the transit of a CME
has now declined. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on
12-Oct, then declining to G0.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Fair-normal Poor-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0455UT 09/10, Ended at 0045UT 11/10
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0205UT 11/10, Ended at 0300UT 11/10
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0345UT 09/10, Ended at 0425UT 10/10
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Poor-fair
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 11-Oct were
poor at middle and high latitudes. Increased absorption was observed
early in the UT day at high latitudes then improving. Greatly
improved HF conditions are now expected as geomagnetic storm
activity has declined and the recent solar radiation storm has
ended. HF conditions at high latitudes may initially be degraded
today then improving. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30-50%.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Absorption observed early in UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct 150 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
13 Oct 150 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
14 Oct 150 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 115 was
issued on 9 October and is current for 10-12 Oct. ASWFC SWF HF
Communications Warning 116 was issued on 10 October and is current
for 10-12 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 11-Oct were depressed 50% during the local day
in association with geomagnetic storm activity. During local
night hours some sites recovered whilst others remained depressed
20-50%. In general strongly degraded HF conditions were generally
observed on 11-Oct. Increased ionospheric absorption was observed
in the Antarctic region early in the UT day. Ionospheric equatorial
scintillation was observed at Niue 11/1512-1620UT. Sporadic E
was occasionally observed at some sites and spread F was observed
during local night hours for southern Australian region sites.
Greatly improved HF conditions are expected for today. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
over the 12-14 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+09
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.0E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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