[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 10 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Oct 11 10:31:16 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.7 09/2312UT probable lower West Pacific
M1.3 1201UT possible lower European
M1.0 1700UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M3.0 2231UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 216/166
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 215/165 215/165
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Oct was at the R1 level
due to several low level M-class flares, the largest of which
was an M3.0 flare at 10/2231UT likely produced by beyond-the-limb
region AR3842 (S13W93, beta). There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3848 (N13W34, beta) is the largest region on the disk
and has shown mild decay in its trailer spots. AR3854 (S04E39,
beta) has exhibited spot development over the UT day. An unnumbered
region recently appeared near N03W63 (beta) and has shown mild
growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 11-13 Oct.
S3 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 10-Oct,
declining to S1 later in the UT day. S1 solar radiation storm
conditions are expected on 11-Oct, declining to S0 over 12-13
Oct. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A faint halo
CME was observed, visible in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from
10/0953UT. This CME is considered to be a farside event and not
geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 10-Oct increased,
ranging from 370 to 815 km/s and is currently near 715 km/s.
A strong solar wind shock was observed at 10/1447UT, indicative
of the arrival of a halo CME first observed on 09-Oct. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 46 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +30 to -46 nT. Moderate
to strong sustained southward IMF conditions have been observed
since the CME arrival. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
elevated with a declining trend over 11-13 Oct due to ongoing
CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: G3
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 50 11124767
Cocos Island 25 11113655
Darwin 35 21124666
Townsville 51 22124767
Learmonth 51 22124767
Alice Springs 35 11124666
Gingin 49 22123677
Canberra 42 01124667
Kennaook Cape Grim 56 11123777
Hobart 69 12123877
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
Macquarie Island 118 12125988
Casey 92 45445966
Mawson 46 44234756
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 46 (Unsettled)
Learmonth 41 (Unsettled)
Alice Springs 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gingin 75 (Active)
Canberra 107 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 44
Planetary 81
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22 4544 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 100 G4, chance of G5
12 Oct 26 G2, chance of G3
13 Oct 12 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 66 was issued on 10 October
and is current for 11-13 Oct. G3 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 10-Oct. An isolated
period of G4 was observed at Hobart. Mostly G3-G4 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated
periods of G5 observed at Macquarie Island and Casey. Geomagnetic
activity was due to the arrival of a halo CME first observed
on 09-Oct. A moderate sudden impulse was detected in magnetometer
data at 10/1515UT, indicative of the CME arrival at Earth. G4
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 11-Oct, with a chance
of G5 due to ongoing CME effects. G2 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 12-Oct, with a chance of G3 as CME effects abate.
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 13-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal-fair Fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 09 10 2024 0455UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0345UT 09/10, Ended at 0425UT 10/10
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Poor Poor Poor(PCA)
12 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 10-Oct were
generally fair to poor. HF radio communication conditions are
expected to remain poor on 11-Oct due to ongoing geomagnetic
activity, before improving to normal over 12-13 Oct. A polar
cap absorption event began on 09-Oct and is ongoing, affecting
high latitude radio communication. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct 90 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
12 Oct 110 Near predicted monthly values
13 Oct 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 116 was issued on
10 October and is current for 10-12 Oct. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 117 was issued on 10 October and is current for 11 Oct
only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region
on UT day 10-Oct were near predicted values to 40% depressed
following the onset of geomagnetic activity. Polar cap absorption
was observed at Mawson. Spread F was observed at Canberra and
Perth during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be depressed
by 20-40% on 11-Oct before generally recovering over 12-13 Oct.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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