[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 09 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Oct 10 10:31:23 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.8 0156UT probable all West Pacific
M2.1 0426UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 0515UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
X1.4 1547UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 220/170
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity R1-R3 R1-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 245/195 240/189 235/185
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Oct was R3, with an X1.8
flare from AR3848 (N13W24, beta-gamma) and an X1 flare from AR3842
(S15W86, beta). There are currently six numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3842, which has been responsible for a number
of X-class flares, has limited visibility due to it nearing the
western limb. AR3849 (S06E03, beta-gamma-delta) has shown rapid
growth in the past day. All other sunspots are stable. Solar
activity is expected to be R1-R3 over 10-12 Oct.
A full halo CME was associated with the X1.8 flare from AR3848 that can be
observed from 09/0202 UT. This CME is expected to arrive from
10/1700 UT. Another CME was observed from 1612 UT associated
with the X1 flare from AR3842, and analysis will be completed
once imagery becomes available. No Other CMEs were observed on
09-Oct.
10 MeV, 50 MeV and 100 MeV protons began to rise
in response to the X1.8 flare from 09/0230 UT. The 10 MeV protons
have reached a maximum of 107 pfu (S3) and are currently fluctuating
about the S3 threshold. The 50 MeV protons reached a maximum
of S1. S1-S2 solar radiation storm conditions are expected, with
a chance of S3, to continue over 10-11 Oct before beginning to
subside, however any further flaring from AR3848 is expected
to result in further solar radiation storm activity.
The solar
wind environment was generally steadily returning to background
levels on 09-Oct. The solar wind speed was steady around 450
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component range was +5 to -9
nT. The solar wind is expected to become disturbed from 10-Oct
onwards due to expected CME arrivals.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 13 33334212
Cocos Island 8 22233211
Darwin 10 22234212
Townsville 15 33344222
Learmonth 12 33234212
Alice Springs 12 33234212
Gingin 12 23334222
Canberra 13 33334212
Kennaook Cape Grim 15 33344222
Hobart 16 33444212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Macquarie Island 29 34555432
Casey 17 44433223
Mawson 42 56654433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 53 6764 5444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 60 G3-G4
11 Oct 40 G3-G4
12 Oct 15 G1-G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 65 was issued on 9 October
and is current for 10-12 Oct. G0 geomagnetic activity was observed
in the Australian region on UT day 09-Oct. G0-G2 geomagnetic
activity was observed in the Antarctic region. G3-G4 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 10-Oct from 1700 UT. Conditions are
expected to carry into 11-Oct before beginning to subside on
12-Oct. This is due to the full halo CME that was observed from
09/0202 UT, in addition to two other glancing blows that are
expected from CMEs that were observed on 08-Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 09 10 2024 0455UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 09 10 2024 0345UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Fair Fair-poor Poor(PCA)
11 Oct Fair Fair Poor(PCA)
12 Oct Fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 09-Oct were
generally good. HF radio communication conditions are expected
to become degraded on 10-Oct due to expected geomagnetic activity,
before slowly improving over 11-12 Oct. Scintillation may be
expected over this period. A polar capabsorption event began
on 09-Oct and is ongoing, affecting high latitude radio communication.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 156
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 100 Near predicted values to 30% depressed
11 Oct 90 Near predicted values to 30% depressed
12 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 114 was issued on
8 October and is current for 8-10 Oct. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 115 was issued on 9 October and is current for 10-12
Oct. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region
on UT day 09-Oct were near predicted values to 20% enhanced.
Polar cap absorption was observed in Mawson. Spread F was observed
in Hobart. Scintillation was observed from 0750 to 0820 UT in
Niue. MUFs are expected to become depressed by up to 30% over
10-12 Oct due to multiple CME impacts expected on 10-Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list