[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 08 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Oct 9 10:31:30 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0851UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 225/175
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R0-R1
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 260/210 260/210 250/200
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Oct was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.2 flare at 08/0851UT. The X-Ray flux as measured
at GOES also began the day at the M2.7 level due to the declining
tail from a pair of X-class flares on 07-Oct. There are currently
five numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. AR3842
(S15W71, beta-gamma) is still the most active region on the solar
disk, it was responsible for the only M-class flare of the UT
day but is expected to rotate off the solar disk on 10-Oct. AR3849
(S07E17, beta) showed development in its trailer spots on 08-Oct.
All other active regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels, with a chance of
R3 over 09-10 Oct. R0-R1 levels are expected on 11-Oct after
AR3842 has left the solar disk. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on UT day 08-Oct despite elevated >10MeV proton
flux for most of the UT day. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 09-11 Oct. Further analysis has been performed
on the CME visible from 07/2050UT associated with the pair of
X-class flares on 07-Oct. Modelling suggests this CME presents
the chance of a glancing impact on 10-Oct at 1800UT +/- 12 hours.
A solar filament stretching from around S35E20 to S20E45 in H-alpha
imagery lifted off the solar disk from 08/0338UT, visible in
SDO, GOES SUVI and H-alpha imagery. This lift off produced a
CME visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 08/0612UT, mostly
directed to the southwest. Modelling suggests this CME presents
the chance of a glancing impact on 11-Oct at 0400UT +/- 12 hours.
Both of the above models are low confidence due to a lack of
usable STEREO-A coronagraph imagery. An east directed CME is
visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 08/1236UT. Coronal
movement behind the eastern limb is visible in GOES SUVI imagery
from 08/1142UT at around S10. This CME is not considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 07-Oct was steady, ranging from
380 km/s to 480 km/s and is currently around 440 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 17 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +10 to -16 nT. Significant
-Bz conditions predominated over the UT day. In particular, significant
-Bz conditions were observed nonstop from 08/0000UT to 08/0500UT.
Patches of significant -Bz continued to occur regularly for the
rest of the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
steady over 09-Oct. An increase is possible late on 10-Oct due
to a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on 07-Oct,
a further increase is possible early on 11-Oct due to a possible
glancing impact from a CME first observed on 08-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 20 44443323
Cocos Island 14 44322322
Darwin 17 44433223
Townsville 26 54544323
Learmonth 21 54433323
Alice Springs 18 44433323
Gingin 25 54443433
Canberra 25 45543323
Kennaook Cape Grim 26 45544323
Hobart 37 46654323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
Macquarie Island 56 47755432
Casey 20 44432334
Mawson 51 56754443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 33
Planetary 57
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 33
Planetary 53 5436 6475
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 12 G0, chance of G1
10 Oct 15 G0, chance of G1
11 Oct 20 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 63 was issued on 8 October
and is current for 8-9 Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 08-Oct, with
G2 conditions observed at Hobart and G1 conditions observed at
Townsville, Learmonth, Gingin, Canberra and Cape Grim, all during
the first half of the day. G3 conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region, with G0 conditions observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic
conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on 09-Oct as recent
CME impact effects wane. G0 conditions, with a chance of G1 are
expected on 10-11 Oct due to possible glancing impacts from a
pair of CMEs observed on 07-08 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 08-Oct were
mostly fair-poor, with degradations observed at all latitudes,
but most strongly at high latitudes and in the southern hemisphere.
HF radio communication conditions are expected to recover towards
normal over 09-10 Oct as geomagnetic activity wanes, with mild
degradations possible, particularly at high latitudes over this
period. Conditions are expected to be mostly normal on 11-Oct.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct 120 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
10 Oct 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Oct 160 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 114 was issued on
8 October and is current for 8-10 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 08-Oct in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values to depressed by up to 30%, with stronger depressions
observed in the southern and western Australian regions. After
local dawn however, the southern Australian region experienced
enhancements of up to 35%. Significant spread F was observed
at Hobart during local night. MUFs are expected to recover towards
predicted monthly values on 09-Oct as geomagnetic activity wanes,
with further mild depressions possible. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 10-11 Oct.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 90100 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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