[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 07 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Oct 8 10:31:27 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1839UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
X2.1 1913UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
X1.0 2059UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 277/230
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 260/210 255/205 250/200
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Oct was at the R3 level,
due to an X2.1 flare at 07/1913UT and an X1.0 flare at 07/2059UT.
The X-ray flux as measured at GOES remained at the R2 level between
these two events. There are currently nine numbered active regions
on the solar disk. Both X-class flares and the elevated X-ray
flux in between the two flares were produced by AR3842 (S15W59,
beta-gamma-delta). This region remains the most significant active
region on the solar disk, although it is in decay and due to
rotate off the solar disk on 10-Oct. AR3848 (N13E02, beta-delta)
is the largest active region on the solar disk and has increased
in magnetic complexity. AR3849 (S07E33, beta) and AR3850 (S09E23,
beta-delta) also showed development over the UT day. All other
sunspots are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels, with a chance of R3 over 08-10 Oct. S0
solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 07-Oct.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 08-10 Oct,
with a chance of S1. The X2.1 flare at 07/1913UT produced coronal
movement off the western limb visible from 07/1950UT in SDO and
GOES SUVI imagery at around S10. This may indicate a CME was
produced following this event, supported by the presence of a
Type II radio sweep from 07/2003UT with an estimated velocity
of 941 km/s. Currently, very limited coronagraph imagery exists
of this CME, further analysis will be performed once more imagery
becomes available. Preliminary modelling suggests the chance
of a glancing impact on 11-Oct at 0400UT +/- 12 hours. The solar
wind speed on UT day 07-Oct declined slightly, ranging from 560
km/s to 395 km/s and is currently around 420 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT and the north-south
IMF component range (Bz) was +11 to -14 nT. Two significant periods
of -Bz were observed on 07-Oct, one from 07/0920UT - 07/1115UT
and one from 07/1515UT - 07/2012UT, a further period began at
around 07/2200UT and is ongoing. The current enhanced IMF conditions
are due to ongoing recent CME impact effects. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain near current speeds over 08-10 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: G1
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 29 44344355
Cocos Island 25 53234354
Darwin 25 44234255
Townsville 34 54354355
Learmonth 33 54335355
Alice Springs 29 44344355
Gingin 37 54344465
Canberra 30 44254355
Kennaook Cape Grim 37 44354465
Hobart 37 44354465
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
Macquarie Island 61 44466674
Casey 28 54444344
Mawson 54 76455453
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gingin 76 (Active)
Canberra 86 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 50
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 12 1022 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 20 G0-G1
09 Oct 10 G0
10 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 6 October
and is current for 7-8 Oct. G1 geomagnetic storm conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 07-Oct, isolated
periods of G2 were observed at Gingin, Hobart and Cape Grim.
Geomagnetic storm conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with periods of G3 conditions observed at Macquarie Island and
Mawson, whilst G1 conditions were observed at Casey. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 08-Oct, as CME impact effects wane.
G0 conditions are expected on 09-10 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 07-Oct were
mostly normal, with degradations observed at high latitudes,
mostly in the southern hemisphere. HF radio communication conditions
are expected to be generally normal over 08-10 Oct, with possible
degradations on 08-Oct due to ongoing geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct 130 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Oct 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Oct 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 07-Oct in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values. with
depressions of up to 35% observed in the southern Australian
region. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night. Ionospheric
scintillation was observed at Darwin at 07/1248UT. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed on 08-Oct,
with depressions mostly likely in the southern Australian region,
due to recent geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on 09-10 Oct as geomagnetic
activity eases. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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