[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 06 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Oct 7 10:31:31 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 05/2320UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 0147UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.3 1521UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1645UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.4 1859UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.5 2121UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 265/216
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 265/216 260/210 255/205
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Oct was R1, with several
low-level M-class solar flares. There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. Dominating region AR3842 (S15W46,
beta-gamma) has become mostly stable. AR3849 (S07E46, beta) and
AR3850 (S09E36) have shown some growth over the past day and
AR3848 (N13E15, beta-delta) has increased in complexity. All
other sunspots are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be R1-R2 over 7-9 Oct.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on 06-Oct.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 6-Oct.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 7-9 Oct.
A CME arrival can be observed from 06/0655 UT, several hours
after it was observed arriving at the STEREO-A satellite. Upon
arrival the solar wind speed increased to near 500-550 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 17
nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +12 to -7 nT,
although no significant periods of southward oriented Bz were
observed until 1958 UT. A second impact may have been observed at the STEREO-A
satellite at 06/0725 UT, the most likely candidate being the CME
associated with the M6 flare from 03-Oct. This event may have
impacted Earth from 06/1408 UT due to a small solar wind
signature, otherwise it is not expected to have a significant
impact to Earth. The solar wind may increase briefly over
7-8 Oct due to a small equatorial coronal hole, and may
stay elevated over 7-9 Oct due to a constant flow of material
from AR3842 observed in the past few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 21322334
Cocos Island 8 11312323
Darwin 10 21312333
Townsville 10 21322333
Learmonth 12 22322334
Alice Springs 12 22322334
Gingin 14 21322335
Canberra 8 11312233
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 21322334
Hobart 11 11312334
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 10111223
Casey 22 44443334
Mawson 21 22323346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 5 1010 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 20 G0-G1, chance G2.
08 Oct 10 G0-G1
09 Oct 10 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 6 October
and is current for 7-8 Oct. G0 geomagnetic storm conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 6-Oct.
One, possibly two, CMEs arrived on 06-Oct but due to solar wind
parameter Bz being mostly oriented northward, magnetic reconnection
was limited and no significant geomagnetic activity was observed.
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions mostly are expected over 7-9 Oct,
due to possible coronal hole effects. Periods of G2 are possible
on 7-Oct as the solar wind parameter Bz oriented itself
southward from 06/1958 UT onwards.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 6-Oct were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
generally normal over 7-9 Oct, with possible degradations at
high latitudes over this period. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct 161
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct 160 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced
08 Oct 150 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced
09 Oct 150 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 113 was issued on
5 October and is current for 6-7 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 6-Oct in the Australian region were enhanced
by 15-30%. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 30%
enhanced over 7-9 Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C5.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 66700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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