[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 05 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Oct 6 10:31:35 AEDT 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 04/2211UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 0012UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 0411UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 0828UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.1 2041UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 277/230
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 280/233 280/233 270/221
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Oct was R1, with several
low-level M-class solar flares from AR3842 (S15W33, beta-gamma-delta)
and AR3844 (S16W55, beta). There are currently seven numbered
sunspots on the solar disk, and they are all generally stable.
AR3842 remains the most dominating region, but its growth appears
to have slowed down and has had little overall change. AR3844
has shown similar characteristics as AR3844, and has slowed its
growth. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 with a chance
for R3 over 06-08 Oct.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on
05-Oct. AR3842 continues to release a steady flow of material
which may have a weak influence to Earth and may prolong any
geomagnetic activity from its earlier CMEs.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day
05-Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are generally
expected over 06-08 Oct, with a slight chance for S1.
The solar wind environment was at background levels on 05-Oct.
The solar wind speed remained near 400 km/s for the day. The peak
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -7 nT. It is likely that the CME
associated with the X7 flare on 01-Oct has passed nearby the Earth
but not made contact. The CME associated with the X9 solar flare
from 03-Oct is likely to impact Earth within 8 hours, as an impact
can be seen at the STEREO A satellite from 05/1943 UT. Aside from
this, there are still two other potential CMEs arriving over 06-07 Oct.
The solar wind environment is expected to be mostly disturbed over 06 and 07
Oct due to CME effects, but will likely being to decline on 08-Oct.
A small equatorial coronal hole may contribute to increased solar
wind speeds over 06-07 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 21211012
Cocos Island 3 22111110
Darwin 4 21211012
Townsville 7 32212023
Learmonth 4 21211012
Alice Springs 3 21201012
Gingin 4 21211012
Canberra 3 21201012
Kennaook Cape Grim 3 21201012
Hobart 3 21201012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 10100012
Casey 17 35432123
Mawson 13 33322134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2111 2313
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 50 G2-G3
07 Oct 25 G1-G2
08 Oct 15 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 59 was issued on 4 October
and is current for 4-6 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 05-Oct. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in Antarctica. G2-G3 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 06-Oct, due to the arrival of the 03-Oct CME,
which is now expected to be arriving in the first half of the
UT day. Further CMEs are possible on 07-Oct but in general conditions
should ease to G1-G2 on 07-Oct and G0-G1 on 08-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
07 Oct Normal-fair Fair Fair
08 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 05-Oct were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to become
degraded due to expected geomagnetic activity over 06-07, particularly
at middle to high latitudes. HF conditions are expected to improve
by 08-Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 162
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
07 Oct 125 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
08 Oct 135 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 111 was issued on
4 October and is current for 4-6 Oct. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 112 was issued on 4 October and is current for 4-6 Oct.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on
UT day 05-Oct were near predicted values to 25% enhanced. Range
spread was observed in Cocos Islands during local night hours.
Scintillation was observed between 0817 and 1410 UT in Darwin,
Weipa and Niue. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values
to 15% depressed over 06-07 Oct due to expected geomagnetic activity,
tending back towards neutral by 08-Oct. Scintillation is possible
over this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C4.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 85500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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