[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 04 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Oct 5 09:31:12 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 03/2328UT possible lower West Pacific
M4.0 0455UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 0521UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 1103UT possible lower European
M1.2 2105UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.2 2211UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 291/247
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 290/246 280/233 280/233
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Oct was R1, with the strongest
flare being M4 from AR3842. There are currently eight numbered
sunspots on the disk. AR3842 (S15W19, beta-gamma) continues to
grow and dominate as the largest and most complex sunspot. ARs
3841 (N13W34, beta), 3843 (S07W51, beta) and 3844 (S16W41, beta-gamma)
have also grown in the past day. All other sunspots are stable.
Solar activity is expected to be R-R3, with a very slight chance
of R4 over 5-7 Oct.
A CME was associated with the M4 flare from AR3843 and can be seen from
0448 UT; however, this region appeared to have a constant flow of material
for most of the day. This CME may arrive from 07/1000 UT but
may be earlier due to the solar wind preconditioning from earlier
CMEs. A CME to the northeast can be seen from 04/2048 UT but
this has been analysed as a a farside event.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 4-Oct.
S0-S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 5-7 Oct.
The solar wind environment was generally near background levels
on 4-Oct, possibly slightly enhanced, however the first of the
CMEs from AR3842 has not yet arrived. The solar wind speed was
on a slow incline, beginning near 300 km/s and ending the day near
400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +7 to
-7 nT. The solar wind environment is expected to become disturbed
from 5-Oct and likely through to 7-Oct due to multiple expected CMEs.
A small coronal hole may also contribute to increased solar wind
speeds by 6-7 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22110123
Cocos Island 5 12111113
Darwin 7 23211113
Townsville 7 22111133
Learmonth 7 22221223
Alice Springs 5 22110123
Gingin 8 22120224
Canberra 5 22110123
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 21110133
Hobart 5 22110123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 11000112
Casey 19 44531233
Mawson 19 33221336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1111 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 50 G3, chance of G4
06 Oct 60 G2-G3, chance of G4
07 Oct 30 G1-G2, chance G3
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 59 was issued on 4 October
and is current for 4-6 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 4-Oct, with
an isolated period of G1 at Casey.
Sunspot region AR3842 has produced
several CMEs recently; one from 1-Oct and another from 4-Oct
have failed to arrive by their predicted time, however are still
expected on 5-Oct. AR3842 has produced several more CMEs with
Earth-directed components since, but due to the large number
of eruptions exact arrival times cannot be calculated with confidence
as they may or may not interact in space. The result is that
G3-G4 geomagnetic conditions are possible over 5-6 Oct, beginning
to taper off by 7-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
06 Oct Fair Fair-poor Poor
07 Oct Fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 4-Oct were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to become
degraded at all latitudes on 5-Oct due to an anticipated CME
arrival, followed by several other CMEs. Due to this, a prolonged
geomagnetic storm is expected over 5-7 Oct, such that HF radio
conditions are expected to be degraded for this whole period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct 156
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct 120 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
06 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
07 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
35%
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 111 was issued on
4 October and is current for 4-6 Oct. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 112 was issued on 4 October and is current for 4-6 Oct.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on
UT day 4-Oct were near predicted values to 30% enhanced. Range
spread was observed in Cocos Islands during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values in the beginning
of UT day 5-Oct, however are expected to become depressed by
up to 15% upon the commencement of an expected geomagnetic storm.
MUFs are likely to become progressively worse over 6-7 Oct due
to expected prolonged geomagnetic storm conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 49100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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