[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 03 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Oct 4 09:31:43 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0234UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.5 0828UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X9.0 1218UT probable all European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 312/276
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity R1-R2, chance R3-R4R1-R2, chance R3-R4R1-R2, chance R3-R4
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 310/273 310/273 310/273
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Oct was at the R3 level
due to an X9.0 flare at 03/1218UT. An M6.7 flare was also observed
at 03/2028UT along with six flares at the R1 level. There are
currently eight numbered active regions on the solar disk and
one unnumbered region. AR3842 (S15W06, beta-gamma-delta) and
AR3844 (S16W27, beta-gamma-delta) are the largest and most magnetically
complex active regions on the solar disk and showed spot development
over the UT day. AR3842 was responsible for the X9.0 flare and
AR3844 was responsible for the M6.7 flare. Both regions were
also responsible for some of the smaller M-class flares alongside
AR3841 (N13W20, beta) which decayed over the UT day. AR3843 (S08W36,
beta) also showed spot development but was not responsible for
any M-class flares on 03-Oct. All other numbered active regions
are stable. An unnumbered active region has recently rotated
onto the solar disk at around S05E80 with beta magnetic classification.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels with a chance
of isolated impulsive R3-R4 flares over 04-06 Oct. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on 03-Oct. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 04-06 Oct, with a chance of
S1. A north east directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A
imagery from 03/0836UT. There is an associated on disk eruption
with filament lift off from 03/0525UT at around N25E54 visible
in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery. A south directed CME is
visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 03/1012UT. There is
an associated on disk eruption with filament lift off from 03/0926UT
at around S30W15 visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery.
Modelling of both of the above CMEs suggests the chance of glancing
impacts on 07-Oct at 07/0800UT and 07/1100UT +/- 12 hours respectively.
An on disk eruption with filament lift off is visible in SDO,
GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from 03/1229UT at around N25W40.
There is no associated CME currently visible in available coronagraph
imagery. A fast halo CME is visible from 03/1326UT in SOHO and
STEREO-A imagery associated with an eruption alongside the X9.0
flare at 03/1218UT at around S15W05. Modelling suggests this
CME will impact Earth at 05/0900UT +/- 12 hours. An eruption
on the disk is visible associated with the M6.7 flare at 03/2028UT
at around S10W40. There is currently no associated CME visible
in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed increased
slightly on 03-Oct ranging between 300 and 400 km/s and is currently
at around 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +7 to -6 nT. An increase in solar wind speed is expected
in the first half of 04-Oct due to an anticipated impact from
a CME first observed on 01-Oct. A further increase is expected
on 05-Oct due to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed
on 03-Oct. The solar wind speed is expected to be elevated on
06-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22212112
Cocos Island 5 22212111
Darwin 5 22212112
Townsville 5 22112121
Learmonth 5 22212112
Alice Springs 5 22112112
Gingin 3 22112010
Canberra 4 12122012
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 22222112
Hobart 7 22223112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 02123111
Casey 16 45422122
Mawson 10 33323122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2222 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 65 G3, chance of G4
05 Oct 70 G3, chance of G4
06 Oct 35 G1-G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 58 was issued on 3 October
and is current for 3-5 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 03-Oct. Mostly G0 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region on 03-Oct, with an isolated
period of G1 at Casey. A pair of fast CMEs first observed on
01-Oct and 03-Oct are expected to impact Earth on 04-05 Oct,
a lack of analysable imagery makes this CME forecast uncertain.
G3 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G4 are expected over
04-05 Oct due to the anticipated impacts of these CMEs. G1-G2
are expected on 06-Oct as CME impact effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Poor Poor Poor
05 Oct Poor Poor Poor
06 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 03-Oct were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
mostly normal on the first half of 04-Oct. Anticipated geomagnetic
activity over 04-06 Oct is expected to produce degraded conditions
over this period, with stronger degradations at higher latitudes.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct 152
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct 120 Near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
06 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 109 was issued on
1 October and is current for 2-4 Oct. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 110 was issued on 3 October and is current for 4-5 Oct.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 03-Oct were near
predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced, with the strongest
enhancements observed in the southern Australian region and during
local night. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night.
Ionospheric scintillation was observed between 02/1158UT to 02/1418UT
at Darwin. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced for the first half of 04-Oct. Anticipated geomagnetic
activity over 04-06 Oct is expected to produce degraded conditions
over this period. MUFs on 05-06 Oct are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 5-15% depressed. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 53300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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