[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 October 24 issued 2331 UT on 02 Oct 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Oct 3 09:31:30 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X7.1 01/2220UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
M1.2 0239UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0516UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.6 0538UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 0624UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.2 1338UT possible lower European
M1.4 2016UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M3.2 2049UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 275/227
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 250/200 250/200 235/185
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Oct was at the R1 level
with five M1 flares and an M3.6 flare at 02/0538UT, an M3.2 flare
at 02/1338UT and an M3.3 flare at 02/2050UT. There are currently
ten numbered active regions on the disk. AR3842 (S15E48, beta-gamma-delta),
AR3843 (S07W20, beta) and AR3844 (S16W11, beta) are all in close
proximity on the solar disk and showed spot development over
the UT day, as did AR3836 (S12W42, alpha). AR3842 is the largest
and most magnetically complex active region on the solar disk
and was responsible for most of the R1 level flaring and all
of the M3 flares on 02-Oct. Newly arrived region AR3848 (N13E72,
beta) and AR3844 were both also responsible for an M1 flare each.
All other active regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be R1-R2 with a chance for R3 over 03-05
Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 02-Oct.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 03-05 Oct,
with a chance of S1. An east directed partial halo CME was observed
in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 01/2312UT, associated with
the X7 flare on 02-Oct and an eruption on disk at 01/2227UT at
around S12E20. Modelling this event was difficult due to a lack
of STEREO-A imagery. Modelling suggests this CME will impact
earth on 03-Oct at 1800UT +/- 12 hours. Further modelling will
be carried out when more imagery is available. No other geoeffective
CMEs were observed on 02-Oct. The solar wind speed was in decline
on 02-Oct ranging between 310 and 440 km/s and is currently at
around 320 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +5 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near
background levels on 03-Oct until an increase due to an anticipated
impact from a CME first observed on 02-Oct. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated over 04-Oct, with a decline expected
on 05-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22222012
Cocos Island 3 22111010
Darwin 4 22211012
Townsville 6 22222112
Learmonth 6 23212012
Alice Springs 5 22222012
Gingin 5 22222012
Canberra 5 22122012
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 22223012
Hobart 6 22223011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct :
Macquarie Island 7 12234000
Casey 13 44422111
Mawson 16 44322134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1220 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 30 G1-G2, chance of G3
04 Oct 60 G2-G3
05 Oct 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 02-Oct. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions
are expected in the second half of 03-04 Oct due to an anticipated
impact from a CME first observed on 02-Oct. G2-G3 conditions
are expected on 04-Oct and G0-G1 conditions are expected on 05-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Oct Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
05 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 02-Oct were
generally normal. HF radio conditions are expected to be mostly
normal on 03-Oct, with degradations possible at the end of the
UT day. Degraded conditions are expected on 04-05 Oct due to
anticipated geomagnetic activity, with stronger degradations
at higher latitudes and on 04-Oct. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct 151
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 147
Oct 116
Nov 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct 150 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Oct 115 Near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 109 was issued on
1 October and is current for 2-4 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 02-Oct were near predicted monthly values to
30% enhanced, with the strongest enhancements observed in the
southern Australian region. Ionospheric scintillation was observed
between 02/1158UT to 02/1518 UT at Darwin. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on 03-Oct
with the chance of mild depressions late in the UT day. MUFs
expected to be near predicted monthly values on 04-05 Oct with
depressions possible especially at higher latitudes due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 89300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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